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Voters who are fiscally and politically liberal overwhelmingly vote Democratic. Conversely, voters who are fiscally and politically conservative vote overwhelmingly Republican. Voters who are fiscally conservative yet socially liberal are too few to matter. That leaves voters who are fiscally…

If the debt ceiling standoff continues, there are five workarounds. In order from the least bad to the worst, they are as follows: Treasury could prioritize interest and principal payments, the President could invoke Section 4 of the 14th amendment,…

Currently, there’s $57 billion in the Treasury’s General Account and $92 billion in extraordinary measures for a total of $149 billion. However, the TGA usually has a balance of $600 billion, with non-debt cash outflows averaging $30 billion/day. Come early…

Through 5-18-23, five companies have contributed slightly more than 80% of all S&P 500 gains YTD. The S&P 500 is a market weighted (share price times number of shares) stock index. Apple has provided 26.2%, Microsoft has added 21.8%, NVIDIA…

The Friday File: The great Jim Brown has passed away. He played nine years in the NFL for the Cleveland Browns and was a Pro Bowler every year. He led the league in rushing eight times, was named MVP three…

As recently as 5/1/22, U.S. office building values, as measured by the share prices of office building REITS, were stable as tenants paid and occupancy rates steadily improved. However, since then values have plummeted by 50% as tenants renew for…

Historically, new houses constituted about 15% of all homes sold. While that percentage dropped to a low of 5.8% in 7/11, the worst of the Housing Bust, it’s almost steadily risen since. In 12/22 it hit an amazing 34.9% and…

Y-o-Y CPI is now 4.9%, down from 9.1% in 6/22, and core CPI is 5.5%, down from the 9/22 peak of 6.6%. Similarly, producer price inflation is just 2.3%, well off its high. Further, shelter inflation is now finally starting…

The median length of time from the Fed’s last rate hike to the first cut, dating back to the 1957 rate rising cycle, is four months. The shortest gap was one month in 4/80 and 1/81, and the longest was…

The Friday File: Wholesale egg prices started 2022 at about $1.60/dozen, essentially rose steadily over the course of the year and ended up at an eye-watering $5.20/dozen. That said, 2023 has been the reverse on steroids. After starting the year…