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Looking back at changes in U.S. unemployment rate data since 1953, a period including 10 recessions, on average the unemployment rate has not noticeably changed during the 12 months leading up to a recession. Once the recession begins, however, the…

The stock market is signaling a soft landing, but the bond market is unequivocally predicting a recession. Similarly, manufacturing has been in recession for close to a year, but services are doing fine. Lastly, hard economic data such as construction…

While actors are believed to earn great sums, the vast majority don’t. 71% of actors earn less than $40,000/year versus 50% of working Americans. 14% of actors earn $40,000-$80,000/year versus 31% of Americans. 7% of actors, compared to 11% of…

On 3/31/23, 23.3% of home mortgages had a rate below 3%, 38% had a rate between 3%-4%, 19.9% had a rate between 4%-5%, and 18.8% enjoyed a rate over 5%. Equivalently, 61.3% of mortgages were below 4%, and 81.2% were…

The Friday File: For a $3.25 cup of coffee, rent is $1.13, staff/wages are $0.81, tax is $0.49, profit is $0.32, paper products such as the cup and napkins cost $0.23, milk costs $0.13, and coffee also costs $0.13, or…

With home prices generally reaccelerating and interest rates again testing recent highs, housing affordability is deteriorating. As of 6/22/23, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.67% it took $2,258, a record high and nearly 35.7% of median household income, to…

June inflation fell to 3% Y-o-Y from 4% in May, and from a peak of 9.1% in 6/22. While core inflation rose only 4.8% Y-o-Y, it’s more than double the Fed’s 2% target. Moreover, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, service…

While equities have so far enjoyed a banner 2023, firms that recently went public are struggling. Class of 2020 IPOs are down an average of 34% from their initial listing price, 2021 IPOs are down 46%, and 2022 IPOs are…

June payroll growth deflated to 209,000, the lowest level since 12/20, April and May employment was revised down 110,000, and it was the first time in over a year that growth fell short of market expectations. Yet unemployment fell and…

The Friday File: In 1966, U.S. per capita caloric sweetener consumption was 115 lbs/year, and as late as 1982 it was under 120 lbs/year. Consumption then rose quickly, peaking in 1999 at 154 lbs/year. It’s since markedly declined and has…