70 Words

Dibilitating Debt Service

04/05/2011

Interest on the federal debt is 1.4% of GDP; $200 billion. But, it is projected to ramp up fast for 2 reasons. 1st we add $1.4 tillion to it every year and 2nd interest rates are at historic lows. If…

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Treasury Yields, Stay!

04/04/2011

There seems to be widespread view that Treasury yields will rise sharply once QE2 is over since the captive market for bonds, the Federal Reserve, will be gone. Wrong, wrong, wrong! The only way Treasury yields will increase is if…

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Private Sector adds 200K+ Jobs

04/02/2011

For the 1st time in 5 years the private-sector added more than 200K jobs for 2 months in a row. That’s great news! The bad news is that if you have a job wages haven’t kept up with the rising…

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The Symptom of Deflation

04/01/2011

Deflation 101: It’s critical to keep in mind that deflation is a symptom of weak demand but it is not necessarily a cause. If we attack the symptom of falling prices with a dose of inflation, we risk having 2…

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Potential Gov’t Shutdown

03/31/2011

We are in a very different political environment in 2 key respects than during the shutdown of ’96. 1st in ’96 there was no Internet, blogosphere or Fox News and talk radio was in it infancy. Thus the liberal inclined…

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Aggressive Fed, Tough Sell

03/30/2011

We know the Bernanke lead Fed is willing to be extremely aggressive. But as we saw in 2010 the hurdle is high for more Quantitative Easing. We need evidence of A) a double-dip B) a stock market correction of at…

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Inflation Trumps Prospects

03/29/2011

The good: Consumer spending rose in Feb for an 8th consecutive month, spending rose 0.7% in February after a 0.3% increase in January. The Bad: Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending was up just 0.3% last month after being flat in…

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Myth Busting 101

03/28/2011

Oil companies produce less gas in the spring to make it more costly. NOT! Prices do rise in spring, but is because there is less cheap butane in it. Butane boils at low teperatures. In winter that is not a…

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Lackluster Predictions

03/25/2011

Sales for US durable goods fell 0.9% in Feb. Economists were looking for a rise of 1.5%. Oh well! Orders have declined in 4 of the past 5 months. Core capital goods (excludes volatile defense and transportation) declined 1.3% on…

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Falling Income

03/24/2011

In Feb there was no rise in average weekly wages, but there was a 0.5% inflation in consumer prices meaning that real incomes fell by 0.5%. They have now fallen in 5 of the last 6 months during with time…

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