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UPS Earnings: Up but Down

05/03/2011

UPS released its earnings last week. Volume fell here but grew overseas. Pricing power in the US was good and revenue surged despite weak volume because big investments in technology resulted in worker hours falling 2%. UPS mgt also had…

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Bin Laden Dead, Markets Shrug

05/02/2011

The death of bin Laden is a non-event in the markets. Had there been a rally, the US dollar, precious metals and commodities should all have weakened and stocks should have rallied as investors moved from safe havens to riskier…

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Startups Create Jobs

04/29/2011

The perception is that small business creates most new jobs. NO! The best predictor of job creation is age of firm. Younger firms create more jobs regardless of size. New firms operate in a volatile “up or out” environment. After…

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Affordable Foreclosures

04/28/2011

A key reason why new home activity has fallen off sharply is because new homes are now about 30% more expensive than existing ones; double the typical margin. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for 40% of all sales in February…

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China to Surpass USA in ’16

04/27/2011

27 The IMF has determined that China’s economy will surpass ours in 2016 – in 5 years! Many have said it will happen in the mid 2020s; they are wrong. 1) The Chinese currency is massively undervalued. 2) Using Purchasing…

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Trade Deficit Dynamics

04/26/2011

The March trade deficit fell by 2.6% but, hold the applause. Imports fell 1.7% due to a fall in demand for crude oil. Exports fell 1.4% as US auto, industrial machinery & food products fell. As if the decline in…

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Countercyclical Measures

04/25/2011

Including the stimulus, tax cuts, bailouts, home and car subsidies and automatic stabilizers (i.e. unemployment insurance and food stamps) the Great Recession will add about $4.2 trillion to the federal debt by the time it ends. The largest contributor; automatic…

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Home Builders Hurt Hard

04/22/2011

NVR, Inc., a large home builder reported lower than expected earnings as sales dropped and margins narrowed. Looking through their financials there is not much to be happy about. If, arguably, the strongest public builder in the strongest markets (DC…

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Good Vs. Bad Inflation

04/21/2011

The Fed via QE2 tried to generate inflation but got the wrong kind. Instead of wage inflation or real estate inflation (including house price increases) which causes people to ratchet up their spending because they feel richer, what we have…

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Courting Debt Ceiling Disaster

04/20/2011

During the housing bust banks held mortgage debt they thought was safe. It wasn’t. In the crunch, they got scared and froze; so did the economy. If Cong fails to lift the debt ceiling the chain of events will be…

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