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Given signs of inflation QE ends in June taking wind out of the S&P. The fiscal year for S&L govts starts in July and big tax hikes and spending cuts are due. State restraint is already visible in reduced employment.…
Read MoreThe Good: Fed lifted its GDP forecast for ’11 to a 3.4% to 3.9% band from 3.0%-3.4% based on minutes from Jan meeting. The Bad: Ongoing frustration with slow progress in the labor market compelled the Fed to say that…
Read MoreThe US has had two huge bull markets since the end of WWII; ’46-’66 and ’82-’00. Each time there was a positive shock to the economy. The 1st bull market resulted from baby boomers and the creation of the Interstate…
Read MoreConsumer sentiment came in better than expected in Feb at 75.1 but the expectations component which leads spending growth fell to 67.6 from 69.3 in Jan and all the gains in consumer confidence were in the high income segment; soaring…
Read MoreThe fall in house prices and home equity have robbed fledging entreprenneurs of one of the most popular sources of funding; equity in their homes! This loss means fewer basement and garage start-ups in general and many fewer in the…
Read MoreI am quite bullish on the multi-family area of the market where demand is strong and strengthening and vacancy rates are declining. The apartment space looks good but as the homeownership rate continues to fall, the improvement in MF is…
Read MoreNew Zealand’s finance minister is suggesting his country could be on the precipice of a recession later this year & a flood-induced Q1 contraction in Australia seems assured. Inflationary pressures are building in emerging markets. Thus the need for interest…
Read MoreS&P 500 sales did quite well in Q4 — up 7.7% and ahead of estimates by a country mile. But, from what I see most growth in sales is coming from outside the USA! Here, revenues are growing at barely…
Read MoreThe AA+/AAA 20-year muni bonds are trading above a 5% yield. That means more than 7% on a tax equivalent basis for top US earners!!!! There have been a grand total of 54 bond defaults in the past 4 decades…
Read MoreIf you were to pick just 1 item out of yesterday’s jobs report that accurately depicts the labor market, given the inconsistent messages, it would be the Household employment # on a payroll and population adjusted basis. It came in…
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