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In an odd choice, the Royal Swedish Academy awarded the Nobel Prize in economics to Eugene Fama, whose life’s work shows that markets are rational in the short run, to Robert Shiller, who says that markets are often irrational over…
Read MoreIf the US defaults, short-term Treasuries, the most traded and liquid securities in the world and which often act as collateral for loans to banks and central banks, would lose their cash equivalence. This would immediately boost interest rates demanded…
Read MoreThe Friday File: The economy is improving! Beer volume rose 1.2% in 2012, to 2.8 billion cases – that’s 210 beers/person, pushing revenues up 3.5% to $62.3 billion. This largely makes up for the 1.3% decline in beer volume in…
Read MoreAmong the demands the Republicans have put forward to end the government shutdown is repeal of the 2.5% medical device tax which took effect 1/1/13. It is a spectacular tax because no one will change their behavior because of it.…
Read MoreGiven the government closure and resulting lack of economic data, the fact that Q3 GDP growth will be below 2% and that inflation remains very tame, virtually guarantees that tapering will not commence following the conclusion of the late October…
Read MoreFull-time working women earned 76.5 cents for every dollar earned by men in 2012, virtually unchanged from 2011. Interestingly, pay gaps are narrowing for all but the youngest. Women 25 to 44 earned 80 cents, up from 74 cents in…
Read MoreThe government shutdown, if short, will mildly depress Q4 GDP growth. The same can’t be said for failing to raise the debt ceiling. The government currently runs a $640 billion deficit/year, 4% of GDP, while GDP growth is 2%. If…
Read MoreThe Friday File: Use of performance enhancing drugs is rampant despite the fact that there are tests and getting caught often results in huge penalties. The reason, inspectors don’t take testing seriously. Otherwise, they would catch to many athletes, sponsors…
Read MoreWith the debt ceiling fast approaching, President Obama is caught between borrowing no more than Congress will allow him, or paying what Congress has instructed him to do, but not both. Either way, he breaks the law. Given the huge…
Read MoreBy 2018, non-Hispanic whites under 18 will be less than 50% of the population under 18, with Hispanics, Asians and blacks collectively being the majority. By 2043, more than half the entire US population will be Hispanic, Asian or black…
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