70 Words

Persuading Persia

04/08/2014

While hoping for a change of regime in Iran that forswears nuclear weapons is a lovely idea, it’s not policy. Rather, for diplomacy to work with a recalcitrant partner such as Iran, you need a continuous coercive element. As such,…

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Lethargic Labor

04/07/2014

Two caveats from last Friday’s decent labor report. First, rising temp employment, formerly a leading indicator of full-time employment, is no longer. Since 4/10, the number of temp workers is up 58%, while overall employment growth is up 7.8%. Second,…

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Condiment Count

04/04/2014

The Friday File: The most popular condiment in the US is mayonnaise, and by a wide margin. Last year mayo sales totaled $2 billion. Ketchup was a distant second at $800 million, followed by soy sauce at $725 million, barbecue…

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Bogus Budget

04/03/2014

The proposed budget released by the White House shows the deficit declining to 1.9% of GDP in 2018 and a microscopic 1.6% of GDP by 2024. Don’t believe it. The budget fails to tackle entitlement reform, the Republicans will never…

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Borrowing Beijing

04/02/2014

With growth in China slowing substantially and Chinese leaders still slavishly forecasting 7.5% GDP growth, expect Beijing to step in and support the economy with aggressive fiscal stimulus. The problem, increased reliance on debt and infrastructure spending along with the…

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Quick Cash

04/01/2014

In another nod to technological innovation, several of the largest US banks will soon allow their large depositors to print money directly on their home printers. While the Fed has remained mum on the subject, the U.S. Secret Service, the…

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Deflecting Deflation

03/31/2014

In an attempt to prevent deflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) is actively considering charging banks, rather than paying banks interest on deposits. Doing this, it’s hoped, will encourage bank lending to private firms, which will lower their borrowing costs.…

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Hot Hand

03/28/2014

The Friday File: After controlling for the location from which the basketball is released and the location of defenders, it turns out there is a small but yet statistically significant “hot hand” effect. When a basketball player is “feeling it”…

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Job Jumping

03/27/2014

The percentage of workers who voluntarily quit their jobs fell to 1.7% of employed workers in January from 1.8% in December, the first decline since 3/13. The number is way up from a low of 1.3% in late 2009 but…

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Housing Holds

03/26/2014

While many fret that existing housing sales have recently been slumping, the angst is misplaced. Since early last year sales have declined 7%, but distressed sales as a percentage of all sales have fallen from 25% of sales to just…

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