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The Friday File: While school closures for bad weather may hurt student achievement, absenteeism profoundly hurts achievement. Each one-day increase in absenteeism lowers math scores by 5% of a standard deviation! Schools deal with school-wide closures by adding days or…

On the plus side, job growth continues to look very strong and inflation rates appear to be no longer falling. But business investment has been declining for six months and retail sales have been slumping for three. This suggests a…

After peaking at 3.03 trillion vehicle miles travelled (VMT) during the 12 months ending 11/2007, VMT hit a cyclical low of 2.94 trillion miles during the 12 months ending 11/2011. Finally, VMT hit a record 3.05 trillion during the 12…

The number of Americans who moved in 2013 was 35.7 million, 11.5% of the population. Since record keeping began in 1948, the percentage of movers has steadily declined from about 20% to just 11.5% today. However, because of population growth…

US crude oil inventories are at 29 days, their highest level since 1985, and are at 60% of storage capacity vs. 48% a year ago. In Cushing, OK (the delivery point for WTI futures contracts) inventories are at 77% of…

With the recent sharp decline in energy prices, the percentage of household spending devoted to energy in Q4/14 was 4.9%, its lowest level since Q1/09. The last time it was below 5% for an entire year was 2003. The lowest…

In today’s press conference Fed Chairwoman Yellen told us the Fed might raise rates as soon as June, but then quickly backtracked playing the markets masterfully. She cited the strengthening dollar as hurting manufacturing and weakening inflationary trends. Moreover, while…

While housing starts were positively rotten last month, weather was a key factor. That said, permits are much less weather sensitive than starts, with a very small margin of error. While overall permits were up 4%, single-family permit activity was…

While the strength of the US dollar was for a long time the result of central bank policy in the US, the dollar is now, to at least some extent, a determinant of Fed policy. Because the surging dollar is…