The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

While economists struggle to agree on many policies, there are some they coalesce around. When asked if giving the President more direct influence over monetary policy would lead to substantially worse monetary policy decisions, 94% agreed. Similarly, 95% agreed that…

The Friday File: Invented in 1962 by Bill Winkelbach, a part owner of the dismally bad 1-13 1962 Oakland Raiders, fantasy football is now played by an estimated 55 million Americans, double the number that watch a NFL game. Winkelbach…

For the first time since 2019, median inflation-adjusted household income rose, to $80,610 in 2023, up from 2022’s $77,540. This brings median income almost back to the 2019 peak of $81,210. The rise was the result of a tight labor…

Following last night’s debate, the question is who won? While subjective, objective data is available. The price of Truth Social, a social media platform majority-owned by, and closely identified with, former President Trump closed at $18.65 on 9/10/24 and opened…

Markets were somewhat perturbed by August M-o-M wage growth of 0.4%. They needn’t be. The main driver was a huge 0.9% increase in technology, the fastest pace since 8/22. Moreover, with productivity rising at a stellar 2.5% Y-o-Y, wage growth…

Employers added a decent 142,000 net jobs in August, but July was revised down from 114,000 to 89,000 and June from 179,000 to 118,000. Four of the five weakest monthly readings since 12/20 have come during the past five months.…

The Friday File: While the federal government collects excise tax on fermented malt beverages at rates ranging from $0.11/gallon to $0.58/gallon, based on production, location, and quantity, state excise taxes show bigger variation. Rates are lowest in Wyoming at $0.02/gallon.…

Today’s release of the Fed’s Beige Book, covering economic activity from mid-July through the end of August, will not be a best seller. Three months ago, 10 Fed districts exhibited growth, while two recorded “flat or declining activity.” Six weeks…

After eliminating recession indicators that don’t send reliable enough signals over their history, there remain 20. This group of indicators includes the Sahm rule, the inverted yield curve, consumer sentiment, etc. Currently, 45% of these indicators have been triggered. This…

While the president can conduct foreign policy and impose tariffs absent congressional approval, domestic policy is different. To pass legislation such as tax cuts/hikes, offer subsidies, or boost infrastructure spending, Congress must agree. Thus, for fiscal policy it’s not the…