The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised economic dating back to 2019. The data now show savings rates not at 2.9% but a decent 4.8%, and real disposable income was upwardly revised by a huge $600 billion and is…

The Friday File: American Lael Wilcox recently cycled around the world in 108 days, besting the previous record of 124 set in 2018. With oceans inconveniently covering most of the Earth, circumnavigation means cycling at least 18,000 miles in the…

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index sank a whopping 6.9 points in August, its biggest one-month decline since 8/21, when inflation was beginning its dreadful climb. This time, the concern is labor markets. 18.3% of respondents consider “jobs hard to…

Inflation fundamentals are stellar. Strip out lagging rents, and the remaining 93% of the CPI has slowed to a 1.7% Y-o-Y rate and is down to a 1% Y-o-Y rate over the six months to August. Moreover, the CPI on…

August existing home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.86 million. This is down 2.5% M-o-M, 4.2% Y-o-Y, and marks the 36th straight month of year-over-year sales declines. August is the third straight month of sub-4…

The Friday File: Yesterday, Shohei Ohtani became the first baseball player ever to hit at least 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in one season. Only six players (including Ohtani) are in the 40/40 club. Ohtani has stellar power,…

While corporate profit growth has, of late, been strong, only one-third of the growth has come from rising revenues. Corporate profits are being primarily driven by intense cost-cutting. We know this because unit labor cost growth has been zero Y-o-Y,…

In a move largely unexpected just days ago, the Fed cut the Fed funds rate by 50bps! This is an overt acknowledgement that the inflation battle is over, and that rising unemployment is now public enemy #1. While the Fed…

What is both amazing and absolutely terrifying about the current housing market is how unaffordable it is. The combination of ever rising prices and stubbornly high rates has reduced first-time housing affordability to its worst level since the mid-1980s. But…