The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

The 2024 economics Nobel prize was awarded to Daron Acemoglu/Simon Johnson of MIT and James Robinson of the University of Chicago. They won it for a seminal 2001 paper, showing how economic growth is profoundly dependent on political institutions. They…

The Friday File: The costliest place to watch a hockey game is Toronto, where they haven’t won a Cup since 1967. There it costs a family of four, for tickets, drinks, hot dogs, parking, etc., a staggering US$704, followed by…

US family inflation-adjusted wealth rose from $52 trillion in 1989 to $199 trillion in 2022. In 2022, the top 10% of families held 60% of wealth, up from 56% in 1989 and driven entirely by the top 1% whose holdings…

From 1933-2022, the average annual S&P 500 return with a Republican president and split Congress is 13.7%, while it’s 13.6% with a Democratic president and a divided Congress. The average return slips to 13%/year with a Democratic White House and…

Through the first 11 months of FY24, federal spending rose $392 billion or 7%, while revenues increased by a healthy but smaller 5.5%. Debt service rose by $227 billion and Social Security/Medicare increased by $174 billion. Other categories that bumped…

Wow! 254,000 net new September jobs, upward revisions of 72,000 to July and August, a decline in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.1%, no decline in the labor force participation rate, a rise in wages, and much more, a…

The Friday File: A recent survey assessing environmental factors known to affect hair including wind speed, humidity, UV index, and water hardness has found Miami is hair hell with a score of 81.23. Tampa followed, then came San Antonio, Dallas,…

Far from being a leading or coincident economic indicator, the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator. Here’s why. In a downturn, firms first stop posting jobs and then stop hiring. If things worsen, employers will reduce headcount through attrition…

The longshoremen strike from Maine through Texas shouldn’t be underestimated. As a supply-side shock, this will raise prices, but the Fed will ignore this as rate hikes won’t influence either side in this negotiation. Estimates put the economic cost of…

While Hurricane Katrina’s inflation-adjusted damage and economic losses exceeded $300 billion, and Ian, Sandy, and Harvey were all about $200 billion, initial estimates, which are likely to rise, put the impact of Hurricane Helene at $150 billion, making it the…