The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom


The stock market is Too High

01/14/2011

Measures of investor sentiment are irrational―the bear share in the latest Investor Intelligence poll is down to 19.1% from 20.5% last week. The bull camp is all the way up to 57.3% from 54.5%. Back on Labor Day, the Investor…

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Decennial Census

01/13/2011

From the recently released Decennial Census we see that 7 of the 9 states (AK FL NH NV SD TN TX WA WY) that do not levy an income-tax grew faster than the national average. And, the other two ND…

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Lots of People are Asking Why…

01/12/2011

If profits are booming why aren’t jobs plentiful? Well, from what I can tell the bulk of earnings this cycle were derived offshore and since U.S. companies get “dinged” on earnings they remit home what happens is that the foreign-derived…

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Companies Sad Strategies

01/11/2011

In December’s employment Report, temp agency employment rose 16k, up now for five months in a row, & ended up accounting for about 30% of the total employment growth in the economy last year. Sadly, what was once a good…

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Credit Default Swamps

01/10/2011

Based on my calculations, credit default swaps are trading as if Greece has a 70% chance of defaulting, 50% for Ireland, 40% for Portugal and 30% for Spain. Both Greece and Ireland are paying over 80% of their export revenues…

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3 Major Points in Yesterday’s Employment Report

01/08/2011

1) Workweek didn’t move; it’s stuck at 34.3 hours for the 3rd straight month. History says hours lead bodies so as a leading indicator there isn’t much evidence of improving labor demand 2) State & local governments are downsizing with…

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Deceptive Decline

01/07/2011

Today’s decline in the unemployment rate is deceptive. It shows is that people have stopped looking for jobs. The Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 64.3% last month and is way off its all time high of 67.3% of…

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Hello? The Irish election in March

01/06/2011

The Irish election in March ― I don’t think this is on the radar screen. The point worth making is that if the opposition party wins, and presses for a debt restructuring, the story isn’t going to end there. The…

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Household Cash Flow

01/05/2011

Every penny at the pumps drains $1.5 billion out of household cash flow. Gas prices at the pumps are $3.15/gallon, but back in September it was closer to $2.70/gallon. This is nothing more than a $60 billion annualized drag on…

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The Biggest Myth

01/04/2011

The biggest myth being promulgated today is that the economy must be doing better because state & local government revenues are on the rise. Dude! That’s not the economy! It’s called tax increases. In fact, 23 states have boosted taxes…

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