The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom


Families in the Market

02/10/2011

I am quite bullish on the multi-family area of the market where demand is strong and strengthening and vacancy rates are declining. The apartment space looks good but as the homeownership rate continues to fall, the improvement in MF is…

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New Zealand Recession?

02/09/2011

New Zealand’s finance minister is suggesting his country could be on the precipice of a recession later this year & a flood-induced Q1 contraction in Australia seems assured. Inflationary pressures are building in emerging markets. Thus the need for interest…

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Sellin’ Outside the USA

02/08/2011

S&P 500 sales did quite well in Q4 — up 7.7% and ahead of estimates by a country mile. But, from what I see most growth in sales is coming from outside the USA! Here, revenues are growing at barely…

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MUNI BOND TRADE

02/07/2011

The AA+/AAA 20-year muni bonds are trading above a 5% yield. That means more than 7% on a tax equivalent basis for top US earners!!!! There have been a grand total of 54 bond defaults in the past 4 decades…

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HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENT

02/05/2011

If you were to pick just 1 item out of yesterday’s jobs report that accurately depicts the labor market, given the inconsistent messages, it would be the Household employment # on a payroll and population adjusted basis. It came in…

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TOO BIG TO FAIL

02/04/2011

Neil Barofsky, the Special IG for TARP put it well in his latest report: “perhaps TARP’s most significant legacy, the moral hazard and potentially disastrous consequences associated with the continued existence of financial institutions that are ‘too big to fail.’…

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ISM REPORTS GROWTH!

02/03/2011

The monthly Institute of Supply Management Report on Business (ISM) is a survey based index of more than 300 manufacturing firms that tracks 11 dimensions of activity across 18 Industries. Readings below 50 indicate recession. Value above 50 indicate growth.…

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MORE ON Q4 GDP

02/02/2011

Q3 saw a boost to GDP due to inventories so the Q4 reversal must be seen in that light. Monday’s personal income & spending report gave details on how ’10 ended. Real personal consumer expenditure (PCE) spending rose 0.4% MoM…

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CONSUMPTION DRIVEN GDP

01/31/2011

While 3.2% GDP growth in Q4 is excellent it was driven entirely by consumption which makes up 70% of GDP. The other 30% of the economy fared poorly in Q4 essentially stagnating (a puny 0.2% annualized growth rate). So while…

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GOOD NEWS

01/28/2011

New home sales spiked 17.5% MoM in Dec, eclipsing the 3.5% median expectation. But, there’s always a but, the gain was led by a 70% jump in new home sales in the West. Every other region was flat. So all…

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