The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom

23Q3 GDP was up 4.9% on an annualized basis with 2.7 percentage points of the increase due to very strong consumer spending. This looks unsustainable because real disposable income has fallen four straight months. That said, spending is strong partly…

Unsurprisingly, the Fed left the Fed funds rate unchanged today but signaled a willingness to possibly raise it 25bps in the future, another mildly hawkish pause. However, by adding the word financial, the only meaningful change to the press release…

The Scary File: Americans are expected to spend a record $12.2 billion celebrating Halloween, up from last year’s record $10.6 billion. In 2019 spending totaled $8.8 billion. This year a record 73% of people will celebrate Halloween up from 69%…

A major reason the Fed isn’t expected to raise the Fed funds rate this Wednesday is because financial conditions have tightened substantially. After peaking at almost 102 during early 2020, conditions eased to 97 by late 2021. They then rose…

The Friday File: The McDonalds McRib sandwich is deliberately made available only sporadically. During 2010-2017 it was only available on 19.3% of stock trading days. However, the average daily return on equities, as measured by the S&P 500, is boosted…

The U.S. economy grew at a stunning 4.9% annualized rate in 23Q3, defying slowdown predictions and up from 2.1% in 23Q2. Consumer spending, inventory growth, net exports, government spending, and residential investment were all strong. But this cannot continue. Consumer…

High rates are finally broadening their negative impacts. Last week a major home builder index sank to its seventh lowest reading in over 11 years, home mortgage cancellation rates suddenly spiked to their third highest rate in at least seven…

According to a recent analysis, the average monthly new mortgage payment is currently 52% more than the average apartment rent. The last time this percentage was anywhere near where it is now was in 06Q2, not long before the Housing…

Chapter 11 bankruptcies among firms with assets exceeding $100 million have tripled in 23H1 compared to 22H1, and mega bankruptcies, meaning bankruptcies of firms with assets exceeding $1 billion such as Bed Bath & Beyond, and Yellow Corporation, reached 16…

The Friday File: During the decade ending 2019, 20,091,410 boys were born and 19,184,303 girls were born in the U.S. The most popular girl’s name was Emma with 194,917 girls receiving it, followed by Olivia at 184,432, and Sophia at…