The Bowtie Economist's Daily Dose of 70-Word Wisdom
Pay Paradox
Last Friday’s November labor report reinforces the notion that the economy really is improving. Payroll growth has averaged 241,000/month year-to-date, a 24% improvement over last year. Yet private sector wage gains are up a measly 2.1% year-over-year, despite the strong…
Read MoreBuilding Budget
The Friday File: The nearly completed One World Trade Center has the honor of being the priciest skyscraper ever built at $3.9 billion. The two buildings tied for second were each built for a paltry $1.9 billion. As for height,…
Read MoreNeedlessly Nervous
While many fret that wage growth is miniscule despite the sizable decline in the unemployment rate, the concern is misplaced. Since 1990, the inflation rate has rarely risen unless the unemployment rate has fallen below 5.5%. With the unemployment rate…
Read MorePayroll Problem
While total non-farm payroll employment is now at 139.7 million, substantially above the pre-recession peak of 138.4 million, full-time non-farm payroll employment is at just 119.6 million, 2.0 million below its pre-recession high. As a result, the number of persons…
Read MoreMonthly Merchandising
Despite all the ads, hype and hoopla, November is only the 7th best shopping month of the year. December is far and away the best, with total spending 15% above the 10-year average monthly level. May is next at 4%…
Read MoreSluggish Sales
At 458,000, October’s annualized new home sales were flat. In September they were 455,000 and in August a whopping 453,000. Worse, inventory actually inched up from 5.5 months to 5.6 months and actual sales in October were 37,000 up 1,000…
Read MoreElliot Eisenberg’s 2015 economic outlook published in an article on Inman News.
Read MoreLowly Lobbyists
Abe Lincoln signed a Presidential Proclamation declaring Thanksgiving the last Thursday in November starting in 1863. After lobbying by the Retail Dry Goods Association, FDR proclaimed Thanksgiving to be next to last Thursday in November 1939/1940/1941 to lengthen the holiday…
Read MoreMediocre Movement
With Q3 GDP growth just revised up to 3.9% and Q2 GDP growth at 4.6%, the last six months have been the best stretch of GDP growth in over a decade. But year-over-year growth is still just 2.4%, compensation growth…
Read MoreSino Slowing
As China’s economy slows, many are overly complacent and point to $4 trillion in foreign reserves that can always be spent to cushion any downturn. The problem is repatriating those funds would mean selling US Dollars and buying Chinese Yuan.…
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