Econ70

While first-time unemployment claims fell 60,000 last week to 1.48 million, they’re barely down from 1.54 million two weeks ago and 1.57 million three weeks ago. Prior to Covid-19, the record high was 695,000! Contemporaneously, the number of unemployed fell…

In 2010/11, US cities grew 1.07% while suburbs grew 0.91%, a difference of 0.16 percentage points. That gap peaked at 0.25 in 2011/12 when cities grew 1.17% and suburbs 0.92%. The growth gap persisted for three more years but narrowed.…

While US equities continue recovering lost ground, markets may be discounting two key risks. The first, a powerful fall Covid-19 wave, let alone the current rise in new case counts in AZ, CA, FL, TX and elsewhere. Second, markets appear…

Between 3/1/20-5/31/20, 79 million student loans entered forbearance, up from 18.2 million between 3/1/20-4/30/20. Over the same periods, deferred auto loans rose to 7.3 million from 3.6 and credit card deferrals hit 11.5 million from 8. Mortgages increased to 5.5…

The Friday File: When Bob Barker began hosting “The Price is Right” in 1972, contestants generally bid 5% to 10% below the market price. That remained the case through the early 1980s. From then through 2010, bid quality progressively deteriorated…

We are currently digging out of an economic recession and a suppression of economic activity resulting from government mandated Sheltering-in-Place. With suppression ending, the first part of the recovery, the most powerful part, is now occurring. But weakened corporate and…

Since QE1’s arrival during the Great Recession, the Fed has guided interest rates by buying bonds and offering forward guidance about when they expect to raise rates. The Fed is now considering adding another tool, yield curve control, where they…

During 4/20, US personal income rose 10.5%, its biggest jump ever. The rise was entirely due to the $1,200/$500 personal stimulus checks and the $600/week increase in unemployment insurance payments. Despite that, consumer spending still shrank by a record 13.6%…

First time claims for unemployment fell for the 10th straight week to a still painful 1.54 million/week vs. 220,000/week before the Coronavirus, but down from a high of 6.87 million the week ending 3/28/20. Moreover, continuing claims have been steady…

The Friday File: Currently, 36% of persons put two spaces after a period and before the next sentence, 64% put one space. While this practice is hotly debated, there is absolutely no evidence either method offers any advantage. The debate…