Econ70

The just-released June IMF growth projections are calling for 2020 global economic activity to contract by 4.9%, or $4.3 trillion, compared to a forecasted contraction of 3% in the April report. By comparison, in 2009, during the last global recession,…

In the Great Recession of 2008/09, household net worth declined by over 80% of annual income. In the current recession, household wealth has fallen by 20% of income, 25% as much. Why? A fast-moving and hard charging central bank, massive…

From 4/1/20-6/30/20, state and local tax revenues will fall by $150 billion, exceeding the $100 billion decline experienced during the entire Great Recession. Moreover, spending has soared as states boost expenditures on unemployment insurance, healthcare, and police. Worse, budget shortfalls…

Developing nations are being hit hard due to indirect effects of Sars-Cov-2. Monies sent home from those working in developed nations has plummeted, tourism revenues have evaporated, and collapsing commodity prices have reduced export earnings. Additionally, the strong US dollar…

The Friday File: Tomorrow’s our 244th birthday! In 1776, there were 2.5 million residents of the world’s newest nation, today there are 329.9 million. The state with the longest name, the State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations. The place…

Net job gains in June were an eyepopping 4.8 million, up from 2.7 million in May! The corrected unemployment rate is down to a still painfully high 12.1% from 16.3% last month. However, new Covid-19 cases are skyrocketing and at…

May existing home sales fell 26.6% Y-o-Y to 3.91 million, the lowest level of annualized activity since 10/10. Conversely, May new home sales rose 12.7% Y-o-Y to 676,000. May new home sales reflect May signed contracts. May existing sales reflect…

As part of the CARES Act, lenders that allow borrowers to defer debt payments may not report those payments as late to credit-reporting firms. As such, borrower FICO scores are no longer as good at separating good borrowers from bad.…

New CDC estimates suggest more than 20 million persons living in the US have contracted Covid-19, roughly 10 times the official count. This means even with all the interventions aimed at reducing Sars-Cov-2 illnesses, the death rate is about 0.6%,…

The Friday File: The inflation-adjusted cost of the Mercury space program was $140 million/seat/flight. The Gemini program that followed was $120 million/seat/flight and the Apollo missions were a hefty $400 million/seat/flight. The reusable, and cheaper, Space Shuttle came in at…