Econ70

For the week ending 7/18/20, first time unemployment claims rose 109,000 to 1,416,000, the first rise in 16 weeks, and claims remain well above the pre-pandemic high of 695,000 in 1982. Yet, continuing claims keep declining and at 16.2 million…

In past recessions, it has been manufacturing that drove the economy into recession, as households stopped buying cars, houses, and refrigerators while services like eating out and going to movies ameliorated the situation. This recession, it is reversed. Service activity…

In the short run, keeping employees attached to their employers through the PPP and other such schemes is reasonable. However, the slower the economic recovery, the less helpful this strategy. That is because the weaker the revival, the deeper the…

In May, retail sales including autos and food jumped 18.2% M-o-M and in June they jumped another 7.5% M-o-M and are now up 1% Y-o-Y! A V-shaped recovery, albeit one aided by substantial government support. Similarly, housing starts jumped 8.2%…

The Friday File: Of the 1,453 baseball players who accrued at least one day of service in 2019, 584 players (40.6%) earned less than a million in career income, with the median being $357,718. Of the 199 players with 1-2…

Since real estate transactions have been very limited given Covid-19, knowing what various types of real estate are worth has been hard to directly ascertain. However, publicly REITs trade daily. YTD through 6/30/20, data centers are up 19%, infrastructure is…

While spending by the poor (bottom 25%) fell by 23% and by the wealthy (top 25%) by 31% at the start of this pandemic, spending by the poor has recovered. For the wealthy it remains down 17%. The wealthy elect…

A key problem with energy conservation is the “rebound effect” where the monetary savings achieved via conservation results in spending in ways that boost emissions. Research finds this perverse effect negates about 59% of emissions savings. A second problem is…

It is becoming painfully clear that firms that received most of the $500 billion in PPP money laid off few workers between late February and early April, when the PPP money first became available. This is because they were in…

The Friday File: Comparing average scores of the first three golf tournaments played this year without fans to scores in the identical tourneys in 2019, scores were unchanged in the first event, but fell 2 strokes in the second; 1…