Econ70

20Q3 GDP growth estimates currently range from 10% to 25%. Importantly, GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). If 20Q3 comes in at a SAAR of 15% (my best estimate) that’s equal to a quarterly rise of…

F&F Fee Last week, the FHFA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s (F&F) regulator, introduced a fee only for borrowers refinancing a residential mortgage. The fee raised refi rates by 1/8th of a point. While the FHFA offered an inexplicable rationale…

First-time unemployment claims fell to 963,000 for the week ending 8/8/20, the first time they have been under a million in 20 weeks. Moreover, continuing claims declined to 15.5 million and like first-time claims have been steadily falling. Despite the…

Regrettably, America’s three largest trading partners will be of no meaningful help in recovering from this recession. Canada’s economy will recover unusually slowly because of very weak energy prices. Mexico’s economy will mend particularly slowly due to a complete lack…

The Friday File: This past July 4th, Joey Chestnut broke his own record by eating 75 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes. Miki Sudo set a woman’s record of 48.5. Professor James Smoglia recently showed that 83 is the…

The UN estimates global population will peak at 10.9 billion persons in 2100. New projections from the University of Washington see the population peaking at 10 billion in 2060 and then declining to 8.9 billion by 2100. The much lower…

Because investors value the dollar as a particularly safe asset, in turbulent times there is a run to the dollar, and more turmoil makes the rush that much greater. However, the rush itself creates assorted stresses and shortages in global…

Executive Extension President Trump’s executive orders deferring payroll taxes, extending unemployment benefits, halting evictions and waiving interest on student loans will help, but by much less than expected. Taxes will remain due, and the $300/week in federal unemployment benefits depends…

July’s job growth of 1.8 million was strong and brought unemployment down to 10.2%. But, outside of the last three months it remains higher than at any time since 1983 and payrolls remain 12.9 million below their 2/20 level. Moreover,…

The Friday File: The median distance Americans live from their mothers is 18 miles. That distance is just 6 miles in the East South Central region and 10 miles in the Northeast, but 44 miles in the Mountain West. In…