Econ70

During November, 20 states experienced coincident economic growth with most of the remainder contracting, a few were flat. Since 1979, every time fewer than 23 states were expanding there’s been a recession. Worse, the number of growing states has been…

Of all FOMC votes cast during Paul Volker’s tenure as Chair of the Fed, 10.7% were dissenting. During the Greenspan years, the dissenting vote percentage fell to 4.8%. During Bernanke’s time as Head Fed, dissenting votes were 7%, and during…

2024 likely won’t be a year of great economic growth because fiscal policy will be increasingly contractionary, savings rates will necessarily stop falling, and bank lending and thus the money supply will continue contracting. Additionally, the interest rate insensitivity exhibited…

I want to take this moment to wish everyone a great, risk-adjusted 2024. May it be a year of low unemployment, high wage gains, world peace, deep sleep, unbridled joy, love, health, falling inflation, lower interest rates, and a soft…

While the cost of gasoline has fallen from a high of $5.01/gallon in 6/22 to $3.07/gallon now, the differential between regular and premium, the premium ‘premium’ keeps rising. In 1994, the premium was $0.20/gallon, where it remained as recently as…

While the equity bull market has been unstoppable, it looks unusual. 72% of equities in the S&P 500 have underperformed the index. This is the highest total since at least 2000. 2020 was the next worst year when slightly over…

National home prices rose 0.65% M-o-M in October and 4.8% Y-o-Y, according to the Case-Shiller Index. “October” is a three-month average of August, September, and October closing prices, so there is some lag in this otherwise excellent index. For the…

The Friday File: Last night, Detroit’s NBA Pistons lost to the Utah Jazz for their 25th straight loss. Their last win was on 10/28/23. They’re now one loss shy of tying the NBA single-season record shared by the 2010/11 Cleveland…

Freddie Mac reported that the October single-family delinquency rate was 0.54% and Fannie Mae reported the rate at 0.53%, both well below pre-pandemic lows and on par with the delinquency rates observed pre-Housing Bust. During Covid the rate peaked at…

The percentage of adults in the Greatest Generation cohort who planned to take on debt to finance holiday spending, hardly a necessity, was under 5%. For Baby Boomers the percentage was higher at 14%. For Gen X the percentage was…