Econ70

In 2016, Trump/Pence received 62.98 million votes, 46.1% of the total; Clinton/Kaine received 65.85 million, 48.2% of all votes, a 2.1 percentage point differential. This time, Biden/Harris received 81.23 million, Trump/Pence received 74.22 million, a 4.5-point difference. Had Trump/Pence gained…

The Friday File: The last Civil War veteran to die was Albert Woolson (1850-1956). The last Civil War bride to die was Maude Hopkins (1914-2008), who at 19 married William Cantrell, age 86. The last person to receive a Civil…

Yesterday the Federal Trade Commission and 46 states filed two separate lawsuits against Facebook, and earlier this year the Department of Justice sued Google. It’s about time! While these firms seemingly offer free services, they are anything but. By chocking…

Through 20Q3, GDP is down 3.5% from 19Q4. Assuming GDP grows at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 3.3% in 20Q4, which shouldn’t be tough, GDP will be just 2.7% shy of where it was pre-pandemic. But, by 12/31/20, total nonfarm…

Through November, 93.6% of renters living in large, professionally managed market-rate apartment buildings paid their November rent. Last year, the percentage was 95.2%, a 1.6 percentage point decline. In October, the decline was 1.8 percentage points, in September 0.9 points,…

While November net employment grew for the seventh straight month, it’s been declining for six straight, and from a peak of 3.6 million. Employment grew by 245,000, a number that normally would be lovely. While the unemployment rate fell, it…

The Friday File: For the first time since 1943, US butter production will top two billion pounds. From 1910-1940 per-capita butter consumption was 18 lbs/year. It then steadily fell to a low of 4.5 lbs/year between 1975-2005. Butter sales collapsed…

In the weeks since the first vaccine announcement, the stock market has rallied, but not Treasuries; the 30-year is lower today than a month ago. Why? With limited fiscal stimulus, if any, coming from D.C., the need is for more…

Personal spending rose 0.5% in October, but ignoring inflation, remains down 1.6% from where it was in February 2020, pre-Covid-19. More interestingly, spending on durables like cars, laptops, and sporting goods is up 15.2% from February, while spending on nondurables,…

The percentage of employees going to work troughed out on 4/8/20 at 14.9%, consisting of maintenance and essential workers. It then steadily rose and peaked in mid-to-late October at 27.4%. Since then, the rate has never exceeded 27.1%. The return…