Econ70

The price index for personal-consumption expenditures rose 1.6% year-over-year, and the core index, which excludes energy and food, and is the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, rose just 1.4% over the same period. This means prices in 2/21 were only…

Initial weekly jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, were 719,000 for the week ending 3/27/21 and 658,000 for the prior week! These are the two lowest readings since the pandemic began, and they have been gradually trending down since 1/1/21.…

916,000 net new jobs in March, upward revisions from 379,000 to 468,000 in February and from 166,000 to 233,000 in January!! 347,000 people entered the labor force, and the unemployment rate fell from 6.3% to 6.0%! Hopefully, we see numbers…

The Friday File: Straight and gay men who reveal on dating websites that they own a dog have “like” rates that are, on average, 20% higher. For women, dog ownership confers a 3% boost. Conversely, for straight men, having a…

Recently released international data shows the number of graphs used by major TV networks to explain economic and epidemiological phenomena may be peaking. Social scientists are calling this “Peak Graph” and suggest that graphs showing the use of graphs may…

This recession has been different from all others not just because spending on goods boomed, when normally it falls, but because spending on services, which usually barely dips, tanked. In 20Q4 Y-o-Y inflation-adjusted goods spending was up 7.2%; it was…

Tax Trouble With the stimulus package done, now comes a proposed $3 trillion infrastructure bill, and importantly, tax hikes to help pay for some of this spending. Assuming the corporate tax rate rises from 21% to 28%, and assuming P/E…

The US population numbers 330 million. 22.3% are too young to receive a Covid-19 shot. Assuming 25% of the adult population are unwilling to be vaccinated, that leaves 192 million to be vaccinated, or 58.8%, well below the most optimistic…

The Friday File: The 193km long Suez Canal, which carries 12% of worldwide trade, 10% of all oil/day, and generates $15.9 million/day in transit fees from the 50 ships/day that sail through it, is impassable. One of the world’s largest…

This recession has upended three well-understood economic stories. First, the “Hollowing Out” of middle-income jobs at the expense of high- and low-income jobs has utterly stopped as the pandemic has crushed low-end employment. Second, the idea that metro areas steadily…