Econ70

The biggest sources of economic tail risk through 21Q4 are, in order of concern, a material rise in inflation, a market taper tantrum like 2013, a new and worse Covid-19 variant, the frothy stock market deflating, and souring relations vis-a-vis…

The Friday File: For the year ending 5/31/21, Nevada had the most legal sports wagering at $14.6 billion, resulting in $910 million in revenue and $61.4 million in taxes. NJ followed with a handle of $14.4 billion, $982 million in…

Despite the Federal Reserve’s interest rate setting committee expecting slower growth this year than they did when they met in June, they strongly signaled that they plan to begin tapering their monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as early…

With debts exceeding $300 billion, 2% of Chinese GDP, Evergrande’s likely Thursday bankruptcy won’t be pretty. But it isn’t a short-term Lehman moment. Chinese banks are in good shape and can absorb losses, and if some can’t, Beijing will bail…

Long-term capital gains are currently taxed at 20% and upon death there is tax-free step-up in basis, allowing heirs to only pay taxes on gains that occur after the original owner’s death. There’s now talk of raising long-term capital gains…

While clearly destructive, the US economy is proving surprisingly resilient against the Delta variant. August M-o-M retail sales rose a strong 0.7%, initial weekly unemployment claims just hit their two lowest readings since the pandemic, and manufacturing activity is steadily…

The Friday File: While there is great debate about why yawning occurs, it appears that brain weight and yawn duration are highly correlated and the number of cortical neurons, a measure of brain complexity and yawn duration are spectacularly correlated.…

From the housing bust until the pandemic, home prices in neighborhoods within a 10- or 20-minute commute to the city center appreciated more quickly than more distant areas. Covid-19 has reversed that as people have moved further away yet almost…

The CPI rose 0.9% M-o-M in June, 0.5% in July and just 0.3% in August. Similar Y-o-Y numbers show inflation declining from 4.5% in June to 4.2% in July and 4% in August, a nice decline! But, trimmed measures of…

In the years leading up to the 2008/09 Housing Bust, the monthly US trade deficit regularly hit $70 billion/month, or $840 billion/year. At the time, that was a whopping 6% of GDP. Now, the US trade deficit is running at…