Econ70

From October to November, the average rate at which credit-card debt charge-offs rose from -0.90% to 0.95%, and the delinquency rate climbed from 0.8% to 0.82%. While these rates are half what they were pre Covid-19, they are no longer…

Despite Omicron, I expect 21Q4 GDP to come in at very strong 6.5%. However, the Omicron Variant will reduce 22Q1 GDP growth to about 2.5% from about 5.5% pre-Omicron, a decline one percentage point smaller than the four-percentage point dip…

I want to take this opportunity to thank you all for your continued interest in my daily economics blog. You all enrich my life in many ways, and I am deeply appreciative. I wish you and yours the best year…

Turkey’s plan to stabilize its rapidly depreciating currency ideally requires the lira to not depreciate vs. the dollar. If that happens amidst rampant inflation, Turkish exports will rise in price and lose share to suddenly cheaper foreign alternatives, hammering exports.…

The latest Case-Shiller National HPI showed a 19.1% Y-o-Y increase in home prices, down from 19.5% last month, and 19.8% the month before. The 19.1% reading remains the 4th highest ever. The latest Y-o-Y reading of the Federal Housing Finance…

In contrast to disturbing inflationary surges in the US, Canada, UK, and to a lesser extent Europe, in China and Japan inflation has largely been absent. In both nations a government-induced stimulus-fueled consumption surge never materialized. De-leveraging efforts have continued…

New home sales rose in mid-2020 from a pace of 700,000/year to 975,000/year but fully returned to their 700,000/year pre-Covid pace by 5/21. Similarly, existing sales ramped up to a Covid-19 induced level of 6.75 million/year in mid-2020, from 5.4…

Inflation, measured by the Christmas Price Index and based on purchasing one of each day’s items in “The Twelve Days of Christmas,” rose 5.7% to $41,206 from $38,994 in 2019, lower than the CPI rise of 6.2%. Fowl lead the…

While the Fed has commenced tapering its purchases of MBS and Treasuries by $15 billion/Month, this will only very indirectly reduce inflation. It’s because inflation is being generated primarily by supply constraints, not easy money. The best solution would be…

The recently passed $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, including $550 billion in new spending beyond the current baseline should boost long-run GDP by, at most, 0.1%, or $22 billion/year. As infrastructure spending ramps up, GDP will rise by an extra $33…