Econ70

While 22Q1 GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 1.4%, it fell because inventories shrank and imports skyrocketed, meaning torrid domestic consumption was met via inventory drawdowns and imports. Federal, state, and local government spending also shrank. That said, private…

The Russian invasion of Ukraine will shrink Ukrainian 2022 GDP by 35% from $200 billion to $130 billion. Russia’s will fall by 8.5% from $1.8 trillion to $1.65 trillion. Combined, that’s $220 billion. 2022 global GDP of $95 trillion is…

Housing activity is beginning to show the impact of rising rates. March sales activity, which is based on contracts signed in January and February when 30-year mortgage rates were rising from 3.29% to 3.9% fell for the second straight month…

Historically, NATO and Russia shared a border of 196km, where Norway and Russia meet. When Poland ascended in 1999, the border grew to 428km. In 2004, when Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined after asking to be admitted like all nations,…

The Friday File: Today, Guy LaFleur died. He was the first hockey player to score 50 goals and 100 points in six straight seasons, won five Stanley Cups with my Montreal Canadiens, is in the Hall of Fame, and was…

In March 2021, the median house price was $326,350 and the interest rate on a 30-yr mortgage was 3.10%. Assuming 20% down, the monthly payment, excluding taxes and property insurance, was $1,115/month. Today, the same house costs $375,300, or 15%…

Chinese exports are softening, real estate is sinking, the stock market is tanking, the Central Bank is easing policy, and 45 cities with 373 million persons, representing 40% of GDP, are living under full or partial lockdown, up from 23…

While most office buildings have not experienced large increases in vacancies due to the long-term nature of leases, this year leases for 243 million square feet come due, 11% of all US office space; the most ever in a year.…

With the 10-year Treasury at 2.8%, based on historical relationships, a 30-year conventional mortgage should have a rate of 4.5%, however, it’s now over 5%! I suspect that this is because investors expect the Fed to keep raising rates. Given…

The Friday File: Looking at tax burden – the proportion of personal income paid towards state and local taxes – NY has the highest burden at 12.75%, followed by HI at 12.70%, ME at 11.42%, VT at 11.13%, and MN…