Econ70

Equity Examination

08/09/2022

Among firms in the S&P 500, information technology had a great run last week and led all sectors, rising 2%. Consumer discretionary and communication services followed, each with a gain of slightly more than 1%. Industrials and utilities were also…

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Excellent Employment

08/08/2022

With 528,000 net new jobs, upward revisions to prior months, and employment now slightly above its pre-Covid level, the July jobs report was absolutely gobsmacking. However, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, tying a 52-year low, the labor…

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Baseball Bazaar

08/05/2022

The Friday File: Earlier this week, reliever Eric Chavez was traded, making it the 10th time he has changed uniforms in the major leagues, thus making him the most traded player in baseball history. Former pitcher Dick Littlefield is next…

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Congressional Control

08/04/2022

While the anticipated Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 might do great things for the environment, healthcare, and the deficit, it’s unlikely to much help inflation, and any benefit is likely to be years out. It’s because the overall spending and…

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Indestructible Inflation

08/03/2022

The Fed’s favorite inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditure index, increased 6.8% Y-o-Y in June, up from 6.3% Y-o-Y in May, and its highest reading since 1/82! Moreover, the employment-cost index, a measure of wages and benefits for civilian workers,…

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Bifurcated Business

08/03/2022

At LVMH, the world’s largest luxury group, whose brands include Christian Dior, Louis Vuitton, Tiffany, and others, reported a 28% Y-o-Y sales increase, and at Hermes, home of the $20,000 Birkin bag, sales are up 23% Y-o-Y. Conversely, McDonald’s is…

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Recession Rumblings

08/01/2022

After contracting at an annualized rate of 1.6% in 22Q1, GDP again shrank in 22Q2 by 0.9%. The reason; inventories reduced 22Q2 GDP by 2.01 points. Similarly, net exports boosted GDP by 1.43 points after reducing it by 3.23 points…

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Baseball Baseline

07/29/2022

The Friday File: Batting average predicts 67% of the runs a team scores. On-base percentage, the frequency with which a player reaches base/at-bat, predicts 78%. On-base percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS), the sum of the on-base percentage and the average…

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Petroleum Powerhouses

07/28/2022

The big supermajor oil companies collectively produce about 15% of the world’s oil, with Exxon the biggest and producing almost four million bbl/day. Conversely, national oil companies produce almost 60% of the world’s crude, with Saudi Aramco at 12 million…

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Inverse Interest

07/27/2022

The pool of negative-yielding corporate and sovereign debt is down from a peak of $18.4 trillion on 12/11/20 to $2.4 trillion on 7/22/22, but up from $1.93 trillion on 6/17/22, a level first surpassed in 1/15 when the ECB and…

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