Econ70

Since 8/1/22, the probability of the Fed raising the Fed funds rate by 75bps vs. 50bps has moved from a low of 20% on 8/2/22 to a high of 80% on 8/5/22 after release of the hot July employment report.…

The Friday File: During 2020, the most Googled painting was the “Mona Lisa” by Da Vinci with 1.02 million monthly global average searches. Next was “Guernica” by Picasso with 455,000/month. In third, another Da Vinci, “The Last Supper” with 343,000/month.…

New home construction activity is either in or near recession given the rapid 20% decline in starts since the recent 4/22 peak and the vertiginous collapse in the NAHB Home Builder Sentiment Index since 12/21. This month was the lowest…

In July, the federal budget deficit was $211 billion, a 30% Y-o-Y decline. Over the first ten months of FY2022, which ends 9/30/22, receipts are up 24% and spending is down 18%, resulting in a $726 billion deficit, 71% lower…

Since Covid-19, the demographic group with the largest percentage point decline in their labor force participation rate is workers with less than a high-school degree with an eight-percentage point fall. Next, with a decline of slightly more than four percentage…

The softer than expected July inflation reading resulted in markets now expecting fewer Fed rate hikes than earlier predictions. As a result, the US dollar had a dreadful week, falling 1% against a trade-weighted index of developed country currencies. At…

The Friday File: When asked about legalizing psychedelics including psilocybin (mushrooms), LSD (acid), and MDMA (ecstasy), westerners, who are most accustomed to legal recreational marijuana, are most likely to be in favor with 34%, 25%, and 24% respectively responding affirmatively.…

Before Covid-19, the cost to ship a 40ft container from Shanghai to the Port of LA had generally been slightly below $2,000. Soon after Covid-19 appeared, shipping costs doubled to $4,000, where they stayed through the first four months of…

While headline CPI inflation fell from 9.1% Y-o-Y to 8.7% and monthly headline inflation fell from a shockingly high 1.3% in June to 0% in July, contain your enthusiasm. This only suggests inflation has peaked. Y-o-Y core inflation remains at…