Econ70

While the 75bps hike in the Fed funds rate was fully anticipated, the surprise was the committee’s plan to raise rates another 125bps at their two remaining 2022 meetings. Moreover, they now finally forecast the unemployment rate to rise to…

Currently, the unemployment rate is 3.7%, up from 3.5% in July. While 3.5% equaled the 2/20 pre-covid low and is the lowest unemployment rate since 11/69, when we were in Vietnam, it dramatically understates labor market tightness. In 2/20, when…

Last Thursday (9/15/22) perfectly encapsulated our economy. Retail sales were up 0.3% M-o-M, but the prior month was revised down to -0.4% from 0%. Industrial production declined, led by a 2.3% fall in utilities output, as higher electric bills reduced…

The Friday File: According to NATO (National Association of Theater Owners) in 1995 there were 7,151 indoor and 593 outdoor US cinema sites. Those locations had 26,995 indoor screens, 3.8 screens/site, and 848 outdoor screens, 1.4 screens/site. By 3/20, indoor…

During 8/22, asking rents rose 0.4%, and while historically very high, they are way down from the 1.9% rise in 8/21. Pre-Covid, rent hikes in August were about 0.2%. Similarly, Y-o-Y asking rents are also declining. They increased 10.5% through…

In a historically strong labor market, with two job openings/unemployed person, and a labor friendly administration in the White House, it’s unsurprising that in the first half of 2022 employees at 1,400 workplaces filed unionization petitions with the NLRB, up…

While August CPI inflation was 8.3% Y-o-Y, down from 8.5% in July and 9.1% in June, it was disappointing; 8.1% is what was expected. More concerning, core inflation, which removes food and energy prices to get a fix on domestic…

On 12/31/19, household and nonprofit organization net worth totaled $116.4 trillion, then quickly sank to $110.3 trillion by 3/31/20 due to the Covid-19 induced stock market decline. Over the next seven quarters, with the government stimulus and a rebounding economy,…

The Friday File: On 09/08/22, Queen Elizabeth II died at 96. On the throne for 70 years, she was the longest reigning British monarch, surpassing the 63 years set by her great-great-grandmother Queen Victoria. Her son, now King Charles III,…

With European energy prices stratospheric, the pressure on governments to intervene is profound. However, all solutions aren’t equal. Capping prices is the worst solution; it encourages consumption by making energy artificially cheap. A subsidy on the amount of energy consumed…