Econ70

Yesterday, the S&P 500 rose more than 2%, a good day by all measures. That said, this was the 27th time this calendar year that equities have performed this well or better, yet the Index remains down 20% YTD. Do…

Uninsured losses from Hurricane Ian probably total $40-$50 billion including infrastructure damage and cleanup costs. Insured losses are another $65 billion. Lost wages and corporate profits due to closed airports and destroyed facilities probably add another $15-$20 billion in Florida…

Traditionally, economists preferred looking at core inflation, which excludes food and energy vs. headline inflation as core is much less volatile. However, since Covid in 3/20, it’s become wildly volatile. Where in the past Core PCE inflation was bounded by…

The Friday File: Earlier this week, NASA sent a bus-size spacecraft travelling at over 14,000/mph directly into a 525-foot-wide asteroid called Dimorphos, seven million miles away from Earth. Sounds tricky. The aim, to see if the crash alters the asteroids’…

Mortgage rates are getting hit twice over. On 9/27/22, the 10-year Treasury briefly hit 4%, up from 1.52% on 12/31/21, the fastest rise since 1981, as inflation fears worsen. Additionally, the spread between the rising 10-year Treasury and the 30-year…

While some talk of a UK currency crisis, concern is misplaced. Currency crises occur in nations with floating exchange rates for one of two reasons, either when the nation in question has large debts denominated in foreign currency or when…

The Dow Jones Transportation Average, which tracks 20 large US firms including trucking, airlines, and railroads fell 12% month-to-date, double the decline of the S&P 500. Declines in transportation suggest less need for goods, materials and travel, unsurprising given high…

Of all IPOs on US exchanges last year, 87% are trading below their IPO price compared to the 23% fall in the S&P 500 this year and the 31% decline in the Nasdaq Composite. This is the worst year for…

The Friday File: US per capita beer consumption is tops in North Dakota at 45.8 gallons/year followed very closely by NH at 43.9, and Montana at 41.0. SD is next at 38.9, WI follows at 36.2. In 26th, the median…

August housing starts unexpectedly rose to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.575 million. While up 12.2% M-o-M, starts dipped 0.1% Y-o-Y. More significantly, single-family starts at 935,000, while up from 904,000 M-o-M are, ignoring the first months of Covid-19,…