Econ70

As of 3/1/24, the IRS issued 36.2 million refunds versus 42 million refunds Y-o-Y. However, tax filing season began on 1/23/23 compared to 1/29/24. That said, so far, the IRS has processed 53.2 million returns vs. 54.3 million last year.…

The new White House pilot program designed to save homeowners money by waiving the requirement for title insurance on some refinancings by some lenders is, while well intended, ill advised. It’s because at the margin this increases housing demand, which…

Since 1945, when equities retreat 5%-9.9%, on average it takes 1.5 months for markets to recover and recoup all losses. When markets experience a correction, a decline of 10%-19.9%, it takes on average 4 months to recover, and when they…

February net job creation was a strong 275,000. However, January’s growth was dramatically revised down to 229,000 from 353,000, heaping more doubt on the quality of the monthly net employment numbers. Therefore, focus on the unemployment rate, which at 3.9%…

The Friday File: The wealthiest nation is Luxembourg with per capital GDP of $135,605, followed by Ireland at $112,248 and Switzerland at $102,865. No other nations exceeded $100,000. Norway was next at $99,266. Singapore was 5th at $87,884 then, Qatar…

In 1/23, when the labor market was sizzling, Y-o-Y wage growth for those employed during the previous year peaked at 6.4%. Among those who changed jobs it was 7.7%, and among those who didn’t change jobs it was 5.7%. By…

24Q1 GDP growth is slipping. The St. Louis Fed has reduced their latest estimate from 1.4% (annualized) to 0.9%. Not to be outdone, the NY Fed has reduced its forecast from 2.8% to 2.3%, and the Atlanta Fed has pushed…

For the week ending 2/17/24, continuing unemployment insurance claims were 1.88 million. While very low, this is their highest level since the week ending 12/11/21. Moreover, the percentage of people filing for unemployment insurance has recently fallen from 36% to…

There are myriad ways to measure inflation. Among the most common are CPI and PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Regrettably, the gap between the two is unusually large. Historically core (which excludes food and energy) CPI has been 40bps…

The Friday File: For the year ending 11/30/23, the most popular Wordle opening word was ADIEU, at slightly over 8% of all opening guesses. STARE is the next most popular at about 4.75%, followed by SLATE at 4.5%. AUDIO is…