Econ70

The Friday File: The holiday of Hanukkah begins this Sunday night. This is the 2,187th time the holiday celebration commemorating the liberation of Jerusalem and the rededication of Second Temple will be celebrated. Over the course of the eight-day holiday,…

As recently as 2/22, M-o-M house prices appreciated 1.9%, and in 3/22 they rose 2.1%, the two strongest months ever. Then appreciation rates slowed. In April appreciation was 1.7%, in May 1.3%, and in June just 0.2%. Then prices started…

As expected, the Fed bumped rates 50bps earlier today to 4.375%. Markets were hoping the Fed might halt increases going forward due to declining inflation, and because in September Fed members anticipated raising the fed-funds rate to slightly above where…

The November CPI rose 7.1% Y-o-Y, down from 7.7% last month, and a 6/22 peak of 9.1%. Better yet, shelter, which while up 0.65% in November, is down from 0.75% in September and October, is at a four-month low, and…

Of late, long-term (10-year) interest rates have fallen quite dramatically, by about two-thirds of a percentage point. However, short-term (2-year) rates have fallen by only half as much. Thus, the yield curve inversion, an accurate recession indicator, has gotten worse.…

The Friday File: While prices ending in $0.99, like $4.99 of $399.99, known as charm pricing, look good, they are on average 18% more expensive than when identical items have different prices. Stores do it because we think it signals…

In 2008, at the start of the Housing Bust, household spending on goods was 34% of income, but it quickly fell to 32% by early 2009, near the end of the recession. It then resumed rising and was 36% pre-Covid.…

Used car prices declined 0.3% in November M-o-M, are down 14.2% Y-o-Y, and are back at prices that prevailed over a year ago in 8/21. Compact cars enjoyed the smallest Y-o-Y decline at 10.5%, followed by vans and sports cars…

In 2021, there were a record-breaking 1,033 IPOs of which 59%, or 613, were SPACs, “blank-check” shell companies designed to take firms public without going through the traditional IPO process. YTD there have been just 173 IPOs, a decline of…

November net job growth was strong at 263,000. While it’s the weakest number this year, signaling a softening market, it’s still way too strong. To wit, M-o-M wage growth rose a very robust 0.6%, the highest rate since 10/21. Moreover,…