Econ70
Consumer sentiment came in better than expected in Feb at 75.1 but the expectations component which leads spending growth fell to 67.6 from 69.3 in Jan and all the gains in consumer confidence were in the high income segment; soaring…
Read MoreThe fall in house prices and home equity have robbed fledging entreprenneurs of one of the most popular sources of funding; equity in their homes! This loss means fewer basement and garage start-ups in general and many fewer in the…
Read MoreI am quite bullish on the multi-family area of the market where demand is strong and strengthening and vacancy rates are declining. The apartment space looks good but as the homeownership rate continues to fall, the improvement in MF is…
Read MoreNew Zealand’s finance minister is suggesting his country could be on the precipice of a recession later this year & a flood-induced Q1 contraction in Australia seems assured. Inflationary pressures are building in emerging markets. Thus the need for interest…
Read MoreS&P 500 sales did quite well in Q4 — up 7.7% and ahead of estimates by a country mile. But, from what I see most growth in sales is coming from outside the USA! Here, revenues are growing at barely…
Read MoreThe AA+/AAA 20-year muni bonds are trading above a 5% yield. That means more than 7% on a tax equivalent basis for top US earners!!!! There have been a grand total of 54 bond defaults in the past 4 decades…
Read MoreIf you were to pick just 1 item out of yesterday’s jobs report that accurately depicts the labor market, given the inconsistent messages, it would be the Household employment # on a payroll and population adjusted basis. It came in…
Read MoreNeil Barofsky, the Special IG for TARP put it well in his latest report: “perhaps TARP’s most significant legacy, the moral hazard and potentially disastrous consequences associated with the continued existence of financial institutions that are ‘too big to fail.’…
Read MoreThe monthly Institute of Supply Management Report on Business (ISM) is a survey based index of more than 300 manufacturing firms that tracks 11 dimensions of activity across 18 Industries. Readings below 50 indicate recession. Value above 50 indicate growth.…
Read MoreQ3 saw a boost to GDP due to inventories so the Q4 reversal must be seen in that light. Monday’s personal income & spending report gave details on how ’10 ended. Real personal consumer expenditure (PCE) spending rose 0.4% MoM…
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