Econ70

By ridding GDP of components that are trendless and volatile, to get at the inflation-adjusted underlying growth of GDP, economists calculate real final sales to private domestic purchasers (RFSPDP). RFSPDP includes household spending and private residential and nonresidential construction. After…

Starting 5/1/23, OPEC will reduce oil production by about 1.1 million bbl/day. What is most interesting is that OPEC already cut production by two million bbl/day back in 10/22, yet prices kept falling. The key question is, with this cut,…

The Friday File: To reduce the national debt by $100 billion, the Interior Department is selling naming rights to the Liberty Bell to Taco Bell. Henceforth, the bell will be the Taco Liberty Bell. Relatedly, the Lincoln Memorial will soon…

In January, for the seventh month in a row, M-o-M home prices declined. While this is the longest streak since 2012, the good news is prices declined just 0.2%, the second smallest decline since this streak began. Nationally, prices are…

In 1992, three million U.S. passports were issued, and 18 million Americans, 7% of the population, had one. In 2006, 12 million were issued, and 70 million persons had a passport, 23% of the population. In 2019, 21 million passports…

In 22Q3, 22Q4, and 23Q1, the percentage of banks tightening lending standards for residential mortgages was low and flat at about 2%. Auto loans are a different story. After also holding at 2% in 22Q3 and 22Q4, the percentage tightening…

As of 12/31/22, the Deposit Insurance Fund held $128.2 billion or a reserve ratio of 1.27% of all FDIC insured bank deposits. As recently as 10Q4, the fund had a negative balance due to bailouts during the 2008/09 recession. In…

The Friday File: The most ethical and honest profession is nursing. 29% of American consider them to be very highly honest and ethical and 50% consider them highly ethical and honest. Doctors follow at 17% and 45%, and pharmacists at…

After every scheduled Fed meeting to make potential changes to the Fed funds rate, a press release is provided. 30 minutes later there’s a presser. When Bernanke and Yellen were Fed heads, markets responded identically to the press release and…

In a move largely anticipated, today the Fed boosted the Fed funds rate by 25bps, and strongly implied that the peak rate is no more than 25bps away, suggesting maybe one more hike. However, in a nod to current conditions…