Econ70

Of late, oil and equities have rallied, job growth has firmed, the dollar has weakened, credit conditions have improved, but growth has slowed. Financial markets peg the probability of a June Fed rate hike at just 19.6%. To give themselves…

While industrial production (one of four indicators used to determine recessions) has fallen six of the past seven months, it’s not flashing recession. Manufacturing, which comprises 78.48% of the index is down just 0.4% Y-o-Y. By contrast, mining and utilities…

While six central banks now charge private banks to hold deposits at the central bank (negative interest rates), the Federal Reserve doesn’t. However, after inflation, the rate the Fed pays banks on deposits has been negative since 10/09 except for…

The Friday file: Tonight millions of Jews will celebrate Passover and their exodus from slavery in Egypt 3,500 years ago. Part of the celebration entails placing unleavened bread, bitter herbs, and other items which allude to or are symbolic of…

In 2015, suburban counties grew by almost 1% to 159 million people while urban counties grew by 0.8% to 77 million. In the last decade, cities grew faster than suburbs only once, in 2011. In 2014 and 2015 high-density and…

While inflation-adjusted median household income was $53,657 in 2014 up slightly from $51,086 in 1991 (and down from the 1999 peak of $57,843), not all households have fared equally over the past quarter century. Those headed by someone with an…

Today’s housing data was mixed. There were slight upward adjustments to January and February and year-to-date housing starts are up 14.5%. But, Q1/15 was the worst quarter for housing starts last year. If starts remain on their current pace, the…

While the economy may not be sparkling, labor market hiring is excellent! Last week first-time unemployment claims fell to 253,000, the lowest reading since 1973 and the 58th week in a row that initial jobless claims have been below 300,000,…

The Friday File: Americans spend 7.6 billion hours and $140 billion complying with the 5 million words in the ever changing and expanding US tax code and accompanying regulations. In 2013, the latest year for which data is available, 138.3…

While the US remains a global bright spot and the Fed aims to raise rates twice this year, the June meeting may not be when they raise rates. This is because the United Kingdom’s referendum on whether or not to…