Econ70

OPEC produces 32 million bbl/day of crude, slightly more than it produced 40 years ago. Then, that constituted half of global crude production, today it’s one-third. Moreover, the two largest producers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, are currently unable to cooperate,…

Last Wednesday, the Fed kept short-term interest rates unchanged. But, the Fed’s communication was more dovish than expected, despite essentially unchanged economic forecasts of growth, inflation and unemployment, suggesting that the threats to the economy are to the downside. The…

The Friday File: Annual recreational visits to the 58 national parks totaled 75.3 million in 2015, surpassing the 1997 record of 69.5 million. On a per capita basis, however, visits have declined to 0.22 last year from 0.26 in 1995.…

Wealth of Americans hit a new high of $88.1 trillion in 16Q1, up from $87.2 trillion in 15Q4. The rise was driven primarily by an increase in residential real estate of $498 billion; equity prices declined $160 billion. Net worth…

Retail sales grew a healthy seasonally adjusted 0.5% in May, on the heels of a 1.3% surge in April. In addition, import prices in May rose by the most in two years and export prices rose by the most in…

While the 38,000 net jobs created in May was lousy news, a July rate rise is still possible if the June employment number is good, there are upward revisions to prior months and the UK doesn’t exit the EU. Moreover,…

The chance of a recession over the next year is 25%, which is low, although double the rock-bottom rate it was last summer. The most likely cause, a slowdown in debt-laden China, followed by weak corporate revenues and declining earnings…

The Friday File: While US hotel bookings were flat in 16Q1 compared to 15Q1, at Trump Hotels booking were down. The steepest decline, at the Trump Soho NY where bookings were down 74%, followed by the Trump International Hotel Las…

In 2015, intra-city transit ridership declined for the first time in five years as cheap gas pushed Americans into cars. Total ridership fell 1.3% from 2014, the highest annual level since 1958. Of the 10.6 billion trips taken, the number…

While labor productivity growth has been dismal since 2011, so has wage growth. But if wages start to increase more rapidly, that would push up costs and prices, and that would stoke inflation and push the Fed to raise rates…