Econ70

Today’s weekly first-time unemployment claims data came in at a staggeringly low level of 235,000, the lowest weekly level since 11/24/73. The data has been strong for years and suggests very few layoffs. Additionally, October housing starts were very good!…

With Trump in charge, but with so much still unknown, GDP growth will probably be a bit faster in 2017; 2.3%. Still not high, but an improvement. Inflation will rise to 2.2% in 2017. While also not high, it’s much…

President-elect Trump’s and Congress’ preliminary policy ideas look possibly problematic for housing. On one hand, dismantling Dodd-Frank should loosen lending standards and tax cuts will put more money in our pockets. However, higher interest rates and a shrinking supply of…

Assuming Trump wins MI where he’s ahead, and Clinton wins NH where she’s ahead, the final electoral college tally will be 306 to 232 for Trump. The three states Clinton lost where she was closest to winning were Michigan, with…

The Friday File: The most extreme hyperinflation ever recorded was in 7/46 in Hungary at 41,900,000,000,000,000% or 41.9 quadrillion percent/month, amounting a doubling of prices every 15.3 hours. Most recently the award went to Zimbabwe in 11/08, when inflation peaked…

Trump’s plans to replace Fed Chair Yellen on 2/3/18 when her term expires is bad news; she is doing a very good job. What is worse, however, is his attacking the Federal Reserve for being politically motivated. These comments weaken…

Despite probably losing the popular vote, but with his vote totals within the margin-of-error of the polls, Donald Trump will be the 45th president of the US. Expect no rate rise in December and as Brexit showed, there’s no reason…

After peaking at $4 trillion in 6/15, China’s foreign exchange holdings have steadily fallen and are now $3.12 trillion, their lowest level since 3/11. The decline would be larger absent China’s trade surplus of roughly $50 billion/month which boosts China’s…

Friday’s October employment report was good! 161,000 net new jobs and upward revisions totaling 44,000 for August and September show a continuing strengthening labor market. Monthly wage growth registered 0.4%; the second-best reading since 1/15, and Y-o-Y wage growth of…

The Friday File: Watching scary movies, think Halloween, causes the body to release an increased amount of a blood-clotting protein known as factor VIII by about 11.1 units per deciliter of plasma compared to watching an educational movie, enough to…