Econ70

With markets now showing a 90% chance of a rate rise in nine days, only a torrent of dreadful data will hold back the Fed. Survey data show solid gains in consumer and small business optimism, unemployment is nearing the…

The Friday File: While getting there may be very hard, the technological challenges significant, and the risk huge – to say the least – asteroid mining may be amazingly lucrative. In the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter there are…

5% of the US workforce, or 8 million people, is undocumented, of which 92% are between the ages of 18 and 64, compared to 60% of the US-born population. In agriculture, 17% of the workforce is undocumented, followed by construction…

While raising rates is always risky, the Fed might wish to act soon. Credit spreads have narrowed to their lowest point in years, real interest rates are almost back where they were before the Trump election victory, and most financial…

Yesterday, the Dow Jones industrial average closed up for the 12th straight time. This was the Dow’s best performance since a streak that ended 1/14/87, and came within two days of the record 14-day winning streak back in 1897, yes…

Last month existing home sales absolutely sizzled, hitting a rate of 5.69 million/year, the best level since 2/07. Remarkably, this strength came despite inventory of only 1.69 million units. That’s just 3.6 months of supply at the current sales pace,…

The Friday File: The first known game of blindfold chess took place in the 13th century when Buzecca played two games simultaneously. In the 18th century, Andre Phildor played three opponents at once. In the 20th century, blindfold chess took…

Until recently, the combination of a shortage of multifamily units, booming demographic demand from Millennials, and an improving economy meant strong demand for apartments. This resulted in strong rental growth and large increases in supply. But, things are reversing. The…

10-year Treasury yields are up for many reasons including a subtle shift in Fed policy. The average maturity of the Fed’s huge Treasury portfolio has declined from 7.5 years in 13Q4 to six. This reinvestment strategy raises long rates by…

While French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, whose platform includes pulling France out of the EU, is expected to win the first round of the French presidential elections on April 23rd with up to 27% of the popular vote, in…