Econ70

The Friday File: After a 9% jump to 1.46 billion in 2017, France, for the first time ever, consumed more hamburgers than jambons-beurres, whose sales totaled 1.22 billion. The split baguette with ham and butter had been the best seller…

Despite being a train wreck heading into 2017, Europe is enjoying an economic upswing. The eurozone grew 2.5% in 2017, its fastest rate in a decade, and on par with US growth. This surprisingly strong progress has pushed the euro…

The currently proposed but not yet implemented trade tariffs by China on the US and vice versa will probably reduce US GDP by 0.15 of a percentage point and boost inflation by 0.1 of a percentage point, impacts small enough…

While it’s often reported that US median income has barely budged in inflation-adjusted terms since 1979, new data show median income up 51% since 1979 to $73,200. Three methodological improvements are why. First, household size is shrinking. Second, the new…

Orders for durable goods rose a solid 3.1% in February, the biggest gain since 1/17. Better yet, orders for machinery, which slumped in November, December, and January, rose 1.8% in February, the best increase since 9/17 and the highest level…

The Friday File: With Amazon now selling prescription drugs, the FDA will, for the first time, allow Amazon to cross-sell. For example, “If you like Vicodin then you’ll probably love Fentanyl”. The FDA is also going to permit those buying…

First-time claims for unemployment insurance came in last week at 215,000, the lowest weekly level since 1/27/73, 45 years ago! Moreover, first-time claims have now remained below 300,000 for 160 straight weeks, tying the previous record that ended on 4/4/1970.…

In early 2014, before there were any ride-hailing apps such as Lyft or Uber, New York City cabs in all five boroughs had 15 million pickups/month. By 12/17, cab pickups numbered just 10 million/month, while ride-hailing apps numbered 15 million/month!…

Friday’s new housing sales data was troubling. February sales of 618,000 were up just 0.5% Y-o-Y and YTD sales are up just 2%! Maybe it’s the new tax laws, maybe it’s rates; in a few months we’ll know. The immediate…

When it met last week, the Fed strongly suggested two more quarter-point rate hikes will happen this year. I expect three hikes, assuming nothing goes wrong such as a debilitating trade war, serious geopolitical frictions, etc. It’s easy to raise…