Econ70

OPEC appears to be again losing control over oil prices. Oil has been rallying despite promises of higher production from the cartel. Prices are rising due to plummeting Venezuelan production, Iranian sanctions, problems in Libya and other production crises. But…

The Friday File: When 14 mathematicians were given fMRI scans of their brains as they viewed 60 mathematical formulas, the formula that generated the most activity in the brain area stimulated by moral, musical and visual beauty was ei pi+1=0,…

In 18Q1, household debt grew 3.8% Y-o-Y, down from the average growth rate of 4.5% over the previous four quarters. Overall delinquency rates fell because of better performing mortgages and student loans. However, credit-card loans 90 days late reached 8%…

2016 was the first year since at least 1790 that the white, non-Hispanic population of the US declined. The number of whites fell by 9,000 between 2015 and 2016, and by 31,000 between 2016 and 2017. Conversely, the minority population…

There is currently a record amount of share buyback activity. While many find this development troubling, it isn’t. First, buybacks really aren’t financial engineering. They total just 2% of stock market value/year, and only 25% of the largest firms that…

China is the world’s #1 exporter with $2.263 trillion in 2017. Next comes (surprise) the USA, with exports of $1.547 trillion; Germany’s a close third at $1.448 trillion. In distant fourth is Japan, with $698 billion, followed by Netherlands at…

The Friday File: While Lebron James and Tom Brady are outstanding, Mike Trout may be the finest US athlete. YTD, Trout’s Wins Above Replacement, or victories attributable to him above the number expected from the best available replacement-level player, is…

In 18Q1, US household wealth increased 1% to a record $100.8 trillion, or 6.83 times disposable income, close to the peak of 6.85 set in 17Q4, and well above the pre-recession 2006 peak of 6.50. These steady increases in household…

While May single-family starts are up 18.3% Y-o-Y and multifamily are up 25.1% Y-o-Y, those numbers are deceiving as 5/17 was, by far, the worst month for starts last year! YTD, a better way to compare volatile month-to-month data like…

Imposing tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods with one-for-one Chinese retaliation will shave one-fifteenth of a point off GDP and cost 100,000 jobs by 2019; manageable. Imposing tariffs on $450 billion, as Trump’s suggesting, would have substantive negative economic…