Econ70

Great GDP

07/30/2018

The US economy grew 4.1% in 18Q2, its fastest pace since 14Q3. Better yet, excluding volatile exports, inventories and government purchases, growth was a stellar 4.3%, and I see Q3 growth coming in at a strong 3%. Longer term, I’m…

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Perfect Pitch

07/27/2018

The Friday File: With data showing pitcher performance declines considerably when facing opposing batters for a third time, innings pitched by starters is averaging just 5 1/3 innings. This makes relief pitching critical. And, because relievers on average pitch to…

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Recession Recognition

07/26/2018

An inverted yield curve, a situation where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, has preceded each of the past seven recessions by 8 to 23 months. At present, the yield curve is very close to inverting. But, rarely have…

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Weak Wages

07/25/2018

While wages are increasing very slowly in response to the remarkably low unemployment rate, regrettably inflation is also rising and is at a six-year high. Real wage growth, which has been slowing since late 2016, was flat Y-o-Y in May…

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Elliot on NPR’s Marketplace 7/25/18

07/25/2018
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Chinese Choice

07/24/2018

China’s economic growth slowed to 6.7% in 18Q2, from 6.8% the previous three quarters. Given government efforts to slow debt growth by reigning in risky lending, along with decelerations in investment growth, industrial output, and retail sales, 6.7%, if true,…

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Crummy Comment

07/23/2018

Last week President Trump said he hoped the Fed would stop raising rates. Bad comment. Markets value central bank independence, and Trump’s comment could easily backfire. The Fed may raise rates earlier than planned to assert independence, and if conditions…

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Billboard Bonanza

07/20/2018

The Friday File: there are roughly 360,000 billboards in the USA. The most expensive is the largest billboard in New York’s Times Square, which measures 25,000 square feet and rents for $2.5 million/month. The largest billboard in the world is…

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Mighty Moderation

07/19/2018

While June housing starts and permits were disappointing, these data are very volatile, and YTD starts remain up 7.8%; good given the headwinds this sector faces. More interestingly, a key reason the current expansion is now in its tenth year…

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FICO Fix

07/18/2018

FICO scores are determined as follows: payment history is 35%, prompt is best; amount owed counts for 30%, less is best. Length of credit history is 15%, longer is better. Credit mix is 10%, varied debt types are superior to…

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