Econ70

Government Games

01/16/2019

By announcing he won’t schedule debate on any bills to reopen the government Trump won’t sign, McConnell has empowered the President and reduced pressure on his caucus that would inevitably come from voting on such bills. To wit, the latest…

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Confederation Collapse

01/15/2019

While unionization has always been low in the US compared to other advanced democracies, trends are similar. Back in 1980, the unionization rate in OECD nations was about 50%; it’s now 18%. In the US, the rate has fallen from…

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Matrimonial Money

01/14/2019

While wages of men and women with at least a HS diploma are similar early in life, they diverge dramatically with age. The gap peaks at about age 50 with men earning about $76,000/year and women earning about $49,000/year. However,…

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Super Seattle

01/11/2019

The Friday File: After a glorious run of several years as the world’s most valuable company at over $1 trillion, Apple has stumbled and lost a staggering $350 billion in value over the past few months on lousy iPhone sales.…

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Pad Prognostications

01/10/2019

Pending home sales have declined Y-o-Y for 11 straight months, existing sales peaked in 11/17, existing inventory has been rising Y-o-Y for four straight months, and appreciation has been slowing for six straight months. Starts have been flat since 11/16,…

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Petrol Prices

01/09/2019

As recently as 2010, cheap oil was great for the US as oil production was low. However, due to fracking, US production has doubled since 2010 to 11.6 million bbl/day. Lower prices reduce corporate investment which leads to reduced employment.…

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Mediocre Manufacturing

01/08/2019

In China, the key private sector index that looks at manufacturing showed activity shrinking in November, the first time since 5/17, and the official government index showed the same, the first time since 2/16. Here in the US, all five…

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Terrific Toil

01/07/2019

312,000 net new jobs in November, the biggest increase since 2/18, upward revisions totaling 58,000 for September and October, and Y-o-Y wage growth of 3.2%, the best in over a decade, make the November employment report outstanding. Moreover, the unemployment…

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Perfect Peloton

01/04/2019

The Friday File: The leader of a cycling peloton experiences 88% of the wind resistance compared to riding alone. The two cyclists behind the leader face about 63% of the wind resistance, while the middle cyclist in the next row…

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Absent Administration

01/03/2019

There have been 21 government shutdowns including this one. The first was in 1976 under President Ford. President Carter endured five shutdowns, while President Reagan experienced eight. There was one during President H.W. Bush’s term, and two during Clinton’s time…

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