Econ70

The Boeing 737 MAX accounts for about 25% of domestic aircraft production. If MAX production is halted, it would knock about 0.5%-point off quarterly annualized GDP growth. For context, 19Q1 GDP growth is currently expected to be 1.5%, ignoring Boeing.…

This past Friday the yield curve inverted; the 10-year rate fell below the three-month rate, the first time in over a decade. This is significant because an inversion has preceded each of the last seven recessions, often by years. Since…

The Friday File: About 500,000 vasectomies/year are performed in the US. The recuperative time is 2-3 days. Not surprisingly, Fridays are the most common day to have the procedure as it gives a weekend to recover. But some weekends are…

Over the past several years, the Democratic and Republican parties have drastically realigned. The Democrats increasingly represent higher income, college educated, coastal voters. As such, how can they realistically advocate for tax increases? Similarly, the Republican party increasingly represents older,…

With fears of growth downshifting, inflation weak, and all-important inflation expectations deteriorating, earlier today the Fed promised more patience and suggested there will be no rate hikes this year. I believe this is an overreaction. But, with rates already so…

In 2016, the labor force participation rate for men 25-54 was 88%, and by the end of 2018 it had risen to 89%. However, for 25-54-year-old women the rate rose twice as much, from 73.8%, to 75.8%. Driving this is…

The state with the highest ratio of federal revenues received to federal taxes paid is KY at 2.35. They paid $30.1 billion but received $70.8 billion, a difference of $9,145/person. NM followed at 2.34, or $8,692/person. CT had the worst…

Elliot spoke to the Fredericksburg (Virginia) Area Association of Realtors and the Fredericksburg Area Builders Association on March 6, 2019. See the write-up in the Free Lance-Star:

The Friday File: While the cost of a plain 16oz cup of coffee at Dunkin’ Donuts, McDonald’s, Starbucks and 7-Eleven ranges from roughly $1.20 to $2.65, caffeine content/cup also varies, specifically, from a low of almost 150mg/cup to almost 350mg/cup.…

While China’s exports fell a whopping 21% in 2/19, averaging out January and February the decline is just 4.6%; nearly identical to the decline of 4.4% in 12/17. Averaging is important because much of the February decline was due to…