Econ70

When the Fed last met, economic data was looking good. Now, not so much. Manufacturing is probably in recession, inflation is weakening, the yield curve is inverted, the dollar is strong, and trade concerns are elevated. However, equities are near…

In April, the latest month for which data are available, there were 7.449 million unfilled jobs, a number that has been steady for a year. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed Americans was 5.824 million, the lowest level since 12/2000. For…

May Chinese industrial production rose 5% Y-o-Y, weakest since 1992, and fixed asset investment growth of 5.6% is near multi-decade lows. Moreover, not only is public-sector fixed-asset investment above private sector fixed-asset investment for the first time in 15 months,…

The Friday File: The 76% of the US population that plans to celebrate Father’s Day will spend a record $16 billion on dads this year, up from $15.3 billion last year. Average planned spending/person is expected to be $139, also…

Global manufacturing sentiment fell to 49.8 in May from 50.4 in April. Not only was this the 13th straight monthly decline in the index and the weakest reading since late 2012, but readings below 50 suggest declining activity! Closer to…

Credit card delinquency rates hit 8.1% in 19Q1, the highest rate in years. While rates are rising slowly for card holders over 30, rates are up sharply for those 18-29. Highest interest rates in decades are partly to blame, but…

Among many, there is a belief that economic expansions behave like people. That is, the longer an economic recovery, the greater is the probability of a recession. This is based on the fact that older persons are, all else equal,…

With 75,000 net new jobs in May, and downward revisions totaling 75,000 for March and April, job growth is demonstrably slowing. Additionally, Y-o-Y wage growth fell to 3.1%. This makes a July rate cut very possible. However, the unemployment rate…

The Friday File: There are 29 monarchs and 44 sovereign nations with a monarch as head of state. Queen Elizabeth II, who acceded to the throne in 1952 is the longest serving monarch; 67 years. In addition to the UK,…

The widening tariff wars are a double whammy for banks. First, falling interest rates are squeezing the gap between what banks charge borrowers and what they pay depositors, known as net interest margin, which necessarily discourages lending. Moreover, as firms…