Econ70

While the yield curve has inverted and the yield on the 10-year Treasury has fallen by half, it’s higher than in most of 2016 when it didn’t suggest a recession. The problem, in retrospect, was the Fed raised rates too…

In 19Q1, US GDP was $21.06 trillion. The largest part was consumption, which totaled $14.25 trillion or 67.7% of GDP. Investment in structures, equipment and intellectual property was $3.81 trillion or 18.1%; government spending was $3.60 billion or 17.1% of…

In 19Q2, the homeownership rate fell to 64.1% from 64.3% in 18Q2, the first Y-o-Y decline since 2016. And high home prices are why. They’re high partly because inventory, which had been marginally improving for 10 straight months, was disappointingly…

The direct effects of the China-US trade spat on the US are small. It’s secondary effects, like weakening global growth, declining equities, Chinese retaliation, and falling US consumer and business confidence leading to reduced capital investment that’ll hurt. Moreover, the…

The Friday File: The late Robert Byrd (D-WV) cast 18,689 votes, more than any other senator. The late Strom Thurmond (D,R-SC) follows with 16,348, then the late Daniel Inouye (D-HI) at 16,300. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) follows with 16,007 and in…

From 1992-2014, Canada was our top trading partner, but its share of total US trade steadily declined from 21% to 16%. At the same time Mexico’s grew from 7.5% to 14% and China’s from 3.5% to 15%. From 2015-2018, China…

Puerto Rico’s population peaked in 2004 at 3.8 million. It’s declined steadily since. Worse, the rate of decline has continually worsened. In 2009-2010 the population declines were just 4,000 and 7,000 respectively. From 2011-2013 they were 53,000/year; from 2014-2016 they…

With new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushing for a hard Brexit on 10/31/19, the pound is approaching a 35-year low! Since April, every ten-percentage point swing in the chances of a hard Brexit result in a 3-cent change in…

The US economy created 164,000 jobs in July, bringing the average YTD gain to 165,000/month, down from 227,000/month through 7/18. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%, and wages grew a respectable 3.2% Y-o-Y. And, the broadest measure of unemployment hit…

The Friday File: Bernard Tomic, who lost a best of five first-round Wimbledon match in a lickety-split 58 minutes, is being fined $56,000 for “not playing up to professional standards”. This is brilliant. We could do the same for pitchers…