Econ70

The Friday File: On social media, 91% of survey respondents said they initially failed to recognize fraudulent advertisements as scams and proceeded to engage and 53% eventually lost money. On websites, things were slightly better; the percentages were 81% and…

In 2012, California raised taxes by three percentage points on individuals with income above $500,000/year and couples with incomes greater than $1 million/year. The latest CA tax data shows that due to a combination of emigration of these wealthy households…

In 2018, automakers sold 81.8 million vehicles and 4.2 million light commercial vehicles, down 400,000 from 2017, the best year ever. 2019 looks to be slightly weaker than 2018. The biggest market is China, with sales of 28.1 million vehicles.…

Recessions tend to occur from sharp falls in auto sales, home construction, commercial construction, and corporate investment in plant and equipment. It’s because purchases of these items can generally be timed, unlike services, like healthcare. Importantly, unlike housing, which skyrocketed…

The US economy added 136,000 jobs in September, bringing the six-month average down to 154,000 from 223,000 a year ago, and Y-o-Y wage growth eased to 2.9%, its worst showing since 7/18. Moreover, manufacturing employment shrank, confirming there’s trouble in…

The Friday File: The world record for the number of stone skips in one throw is 88, set by American Kurt Steiner in 2013. The record he broke was 65 skips, set by Max Steiner (no relation). In Europe, where…

One reason Europe grows slower than the US is because it’s a goods producing powerhouse. That’s because EU rules allow goods to cross borders more easily than services. Unfortunately for Europe, service companies (like Google and Microsoft) are not only…

While the inverted yield curve isn’t good, it’s not as bad an omen as before. First, post-recession regulations have forced banks to hold more bonds. Second, the Fed now holds trillions in Treasuries. Third, rates in Europe are largely negative…

From 1980-2007, US savings rates declined from about 10% to 2.5%. They have since risen and are now 8.1%. Unsurprisingly, savings rose after the recession as households rebuilt wealth. Rates may also be up due to rising economic uncertainty. But…

The number of employees impacted by work stoppages between 1/1/19 and 8/30/19 is 375,000, the second highest level since 2000. This must be partly motivating the striking GM workers. Relatedly, the share of low-income Americans, households with incomes below $60,000/year,…