Econ70

The Friday File: The average dollar bill lasts 5.8 years. The average $5 bill, 5.5 years, while the $10 bill lasts just 4.5 years, less than any other note. $20s average 7.9 years, $50 bills last a slightly longer 8.5…

If the US-China trade war does not worsen and President Trump doesn’t increase tariffs on Chinese imports on 12/15/19, the trade war’s negative impact on GDP here and China should end by 12/31/20. The cumulative reduction in Chinese GDP is…

With manufacturing, capital spending by firms, transportation, agriculture, and energy all weak, the relatively good October housing starts were particularly pleasing. Starts were up 8.5% Y-o-Y, are at their second-best level since 5/18, and single-family starts have been rising since…

While the US economy looks to be holding up reasonably well, having grown at an annualized rate of 1.9% in 19Q3, it can expect no help from abroad. The #2 global economy, China, slowed further in October with industrial output…

In 1976, the estate tax applied to 7% of all descendants at a top rate of 70%. Today, just 0.07% of descendants owe money; a 99% decline! To reduce inequality, don’t impose confiscatory wealth taxes of 2% or more, tax…

The Friday File: Some days bulls are happy, some days bears are, last Tuesday the Dow disappointed both, it went nowhere. Monday it closed at 27691.4854488934 and Tuesday, it closed at 27691.4854488934; 0.000000000% change! Over the past 123 years, this…

Near steady job growth in an economy that’s meaningfully slowing is odd. Shouldn’t employment growth decline too? I think several factors are at work. Our economy is increasingly service oriented and efficiency gains in that giant sector are limited; relatedly…

While oil prices are down about 25% this year, share prices of oil & gas firms are down, on average, 50%. And of the 70+ US-based oil companies, only one has a share price that has not declined over the…

While Medicare for All offers advantages, be careful. Eliminating private insurers, the gate keepers who reduce access and overuse, will result in greater demand. If reimbursement rates are much reduced, doctors will earn less, time per patient will decline, and…

19Q3 US labor productivity has just come in at -0.1%, and while quarterly numbers are volatile, it was the first negative quarterly number since 15Q4. Looking at the results annually, productivity growth came in at a higher 1.4%, but that…