Econ70

While interest rates on Treasuries have hit all-time lows, mortgage rates have fallen, but not as much. There are at least three reasons. First, if rates keep falling, prepayments will increase, hurting mortgage investors. Second, lower rates suggest the economy…

Last week financial markets weren’t expecting any rate cuts, but this morning the Fed did an emergency inter-meeting half-point rate cut! This should reduce tightening financial conditions we are seeing, and boost confidence. As rates are higher here than in…

In January 2018, 70% of workers between 22 and 37 had been with their employer 13 months or more. In 2002 that percentage was 69%. Similarly, in 1/18 28.8% of workers aged 25 to 34 had been with the same…

The Friday File: Last Saturday, 34-year old Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals scored his 700th NHL goal, placing him 8th on the all-time list. More amazingly, he is currently 3rd in goal scoring this year, and at his current…

59% of Americans said they are financially better off now than they were a year ago, 20% said they were worse off, and 21% said things have not changed. 59% is the highest positive response rate ever recorded by Gallup,…

The average price paid for a new vehicle last year was $33,600, up from $32,500 in 2018, and the average new car payment is $566/month. Not surprisingly, new vehicle sales to buyers between 16 and 35 fell 4.5% last year,…

With France, Italy and Japan contracting, the UK and Germany flatlining, China’s GDP taking a sizable hit due to COVID-19 (along with airlines, energy companies, tourism, luxury goods, transportation and manufacturing), it’s hard to see 20Q1 US GDP growth exceeding…

With COVID-19 fears pervasive, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.361% this morning, a shade below its prior low of 1.366% set in 2016, while the 30-year yield hit a new low of 1.821%. This suggests a…

The Friday File: The winner (from over 3,000 competitors) at the 144th edition of the Westminster Dog Show was Siba, a Standard Poodle from the Non-Sporting group. The other six finalists included a Whippet from Hounds, a Havanese from Toy,…

A key question in 2020 will be whether the inevitable slowdown in job growth is primarily the result of a reduction in the supply of workers or a reduction in the demand for labor due to weaker business sentiment. If…