Econ70

US higher education will soon suffer a raft of smaller college closures. This is due to endowments and endowment income being down, sports revenue being nonexistent, and refunds being up due to Covid-19 campus closures. Add in tax revenue declines,…

In 20Q1, US GDP fell 4.8% on an annualized basis; 1.2% on a quarterly basis. In 20Q2, I expect US GDP to fall by 30% annualized, or 7.5% on a quarterly basis. Combined, the GDP decline in 20H1 totals 8.7%.…

The 20.5 million job losses in April wiped out a decade of job gains and are ten times the previous record monthly job loss of 2 million set in 11/45. The only silver lining, 18 million of those losing their…

The Friday File: While sales of paper products and comfort foods spiked in March and early April, they’re returning to normal. Not so for alcohol! For the five weeks ending 4/18, retail sales are up an average of 24%, with…

In 2019, for the first time since 1952, US energy exports of 23.6 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), exceeded energy imports of 22.8 quads. In 2019, the US was a net importer of 9 quads of crude oil but a…

While residential remodeling, which is as big as new single-family construction, has generally grown by about 5% a year since the Great Recession of 2008/09, things are changing. The combination of job losses, fear of job losses, declining household income,…

In 2018, well before Covid-19 arrived, marriage rates fell to 6.5 marriages per 1,000 persons, their lowest level since record keeping began in 1867! Interestingly, this is happening despite Millennials entering their “Peak Marriage” period, yet rates are still falling.…

With recent job losses totaling slightly over 30 million and with millions more to come, assuming no one leaves the labor force, the unemployment rate will peak at 24% in 20Q2. Assuming 10 million persons quit the labor force, unemployment…

Correct Calls The Friday File: Sports leagues are considering playing games in empty stadiums to fulfill obligations to networks that air games. Based on experience with soccer games held in empty European stadiums, referee calls will be less biased, thus…

Falling commodity prices, massive unemployment, vacant office space, unused manufacturing facilities, and cheap energy suggest weak inflation or even deflation are likely going forward. But spectacularly large increases in the federal deficit and huge jumps in the money supply suggest…