Econ70

The Friday File: While the federal government collects excise tax on fermented malt beverages at rates ranging from $0.11/gallon to $0.58/gallon, based on production, location, and quantity, state excise taxes show bigger variation. Rates are lowest in Wyoming at $0.02/gallon.…

Today’s release of the Fed’s Beige Book, covering economic activity from mid-July through the end of August, will not be a best seller. Three months ago, 10 Fed districts exhibited growth, while two recorded “flat or declining activity.” Six weeks…

After eliminating recession indicators that don’t send reliable enough signals over their history, there remain 20. This group of indicators includes the Sahm rule, the inverted yield curve, consumer sentiment, etc. Currently, 45% of these indicators have been triggered. This…

While the president can conduct foreign policy and impose tariffs absent congressional approval, domestic policy is different. To pass legislation such as tax cuts/hikes, offer subsidies, or boost infrastructure spending, Congress must agree. Thus, for fiscal policy it’s not the…

The Friday File: Made an official holiday in 1894 by President Cleveland, Labor Day was created to honor American workers. Those workers are happiest in SD, where the unemployment rate is 2%. It’s 2.1% in VT, 2.2% in ND, 2.5%…

For the five years ending 1/20, the median down payment was 10% of the home purchase price. Since then, it’s almost steadily risen and is now 18.6%. Consequently, the down payment dollar amount has jumped from $30,000 pre-Covid to almost…

Over the last 50 years, has energy spending risen or declined? The answer is both! In 1970, inflation-adjusted US energy expenditures totaled about $500 billion, in 2022 they were $1.7 trillion, they more than tripled. On a per capita basis,…

During Powell’s recent Jackson Hole speech, he repeatedly said the labor market is weaker than pre-Covid, when Fed funds was 1.75%! Currently, markets are expecting a terminal Fed funds rate of 3.25%, with 100bps of cuts through December and another…

The latest 24Q3 GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed is 2%, down from 2.9% a week ago. Similarly, the NY Fed sees 1.8%, down from 2.2%, and the St. Louis Fed sees 1.3% growth, down from 1.6%. Averaging the three…

The Friday File: Starbucks’ Pumpkin Spice Latte debuted 21 years ago in 2003 in just 100 stores in Washington, DC and Vancouver, WA. It was so popular, in 2004 PSL was rolled out nationwide and October sales instantly jumped 25%.…