Month: May 2024

April real retail sales were flat M-o-M and Y-o-Y, extending a trend of mildly slowing sales. After jumping 15% due to Covid, retail sales remained strong through 1/23 but have weakened slightly as post-Covid services spending has, unsurprisingly, risen. Additionally,…

Inflation eased slightly in April. The CPI rose 3.4% Y-o-Y, down from 3.5% in March. Similarly, core-CPI rose 3.6% Y-o-Y, the lowest rate since 4/21 and down 3.8% M-o-M. However, both the CPI and core-CPI rose 0.3% M-o-M, much too…

In what can only be described as insanity, meme stocks such as GameStop, AMC, Blackberry, and Beyond Meat, are once again making headlines with their sudden rapid price appreciation. Monday, GameStop rose 74%, and AMC 78%. Since 5/1/24, GameStop is…

Recent research shows that for every percentage point that mortgage market rates exceed the rate currently enjoyed by the homeowner, the probability of sale is reduced 18.1%. This led to a 57% reduction in home sales with fixed-rate mortgages in…

The Friday File: Between 19Q1-24Q1 the market share of fast casual and quick service restaurants (QSR) that primarily sell chicken rose from 13.4% to 15.3%. Conversely, those selling primarily burgers declined from 61.3% to 60%, and the percentage specializing in…

The Fed is calling for real GDP growth of 2.1% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. Simultaneously, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that potential GDP, that is the increase in the labor force plus the impact of rising productivity,…

In another sign that inflation should soften, the NY Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index declined from -0.30 in March to -0.85 in April. It’s been below zero each of the last five months and 12 of the last 13…

After peaking in CY2016 at 17.5 million, sales of cars and light trucks steadily slid and by CY2019 were 17 million. Between 2020-2022, sales were dismal and peaked in CY2021 at 15 million. While sales rose to 15.5 million units…

After four months of larger than expected monthly job growth, April employment grew 175,000, it’s fourth lowest gain since 1/21. This pushed the unemployment rate up to 3.9%, Y-o-Y wage growth down to 3.9%, and the workweek also softened. All…

The Fun Finale: Sometime in May, when the soil temperature eight inches deep reaches 65 degrees, trillions of cicadas will emerge, mate, lay eggs and then die, all in about five weeks. What makes this year special is that Brood…